#MarketTiming Signals – 4/9/19

THE SIGNALS AS OF 4/9/19.
Long-Term Breadth (NYSI): SELL FROM 4/9.
Short-Term Breadth (NYMO): SELL FROM 4/8.
Price: TQQQ SELL 4/9 UP 5.0%; UPRO SELL 4/9 UP 5.0%.3%; TNA SELL 2.7%
Nifty-50-Stock-List: 20 BUYS, 6 NEW BUY, 8 OVERBOUGHT; 30 SELLS, 6 NEW SELLS, 4 OVERSOLD.
CNN MONEY’S “Fear and Greed” Index: 71, DOWN, GREED LEVEL.
Bellwether Stocks: 4 UP, 11 DOWN.

OF NOTE, $10K Swing Trades, SPY OPTIONS:

SPY CLOSE – 287.33.
SOLD ON CLOSE – 282 APRIL IN-THE-MONEY UP 25.7%, 284 APRIL AT-THE-MONEY CALL UP 22.8%.
BUY ON OPEN – 288 APRIL IN-THE-MONEY PUT, 287 AT-THE-MONEY PUT.

OF NOTE, $10K Swing Trade Stocks:
SOLD ON CLOSE – WYNN, 17.6%; FSLR, up 6.6%; GS, UP 4.1%; NVDA UP 5.2%; AMZN UP 2.4%.
BUY ON OPEN – NFLX.

WHAT’S NEXT?
As noted in yesterday’s post, with the SPY is up eight days in a row and the NYMO turning down a profit-taking dip was coming “any day, any hour, any minute.”

Got that dip today causing profits to be taken on five bellwether stocks and SPY options (see table above). With the dip, however, the NYSI turned down – a bit of a surprise. Consequently, this pull back could get carried away to down side. Don’t really expect it after seeing so much momentum on the last bullish surge. Most likely it’s a mere dip to the zero line on the NYMO.

As said in the post below, as long as the NYMO and/or NYSI remain positive overall the usual play is to be long, take profits when the stocks give sell signals, and buy coming out of dips.

Trouble is, as of today, neither of them are positive so we’ll have to wait and see, or be ready to be nimble, playing offense with SPY puts on tomorrow’s open and playing defense immediately thereafter.

CNN MONEY’S “fear and Greed” pulled back, still at a “greed” level,” but it tends to be early at the top of swings. (Actually, the more I consider this, the more I’m beginning to think this dip COULD turn into a decent decline.) See the chart below.

AAPL finally had a reversal day and remains five days, by my measure, in overbought territory. If the market’s going to get carried away to the downside, the market-cap craziness of AAPL is a likely to be an easy down-and-dirty put play, maybe the 200 put for either Friday’s or the 4/18 expiration. The AAPL 190 April at-the-money call on this market rally is up a whopping 144% and has not, as yet, given an actual sell signal.

The banking stocks did today, a day late, what was suggested in this link – $XLF – Fighting an urge to short the bank stocks – so those short scalps are in play.

(click on the charts for a larger view)

$LVS $WYNN – “No one knows how to bankrupt casinos like I do.”

I made up the quote in the headline on this post but I’d bet the first thought of everyone — EVERYONE — who read it was Donald Trump said that?!

He might as well have (maybe he has sometime in his daily incoherence). Before he got into the money laundering business with the Russian Oligarchs, he owned casinos in Atlantic City. They all went broke.

He doesn’t own any gambling palaces anymore but it appears as President he’d like to help bankrupt those of his friends as well, like a hobby on the side. Both Sheldon Adelson and Steve Wynn are big Trump supports. Or at least they have been. Looking at what’s happening to the shares of their companies, one wonders if they still are. If they are, what’s the matter with them?

This probably has to do with the way Trump has managed to get the Chinese to quit playing games of chance but who knows? Maybe it’s just his “golden touch” in casinos is contagious? Or maybe, a more obviously, it might be, as much as fools wants to tout the supposed merits of a businessman in the White House, every fool needs to remember the last one was Herbert Hoover.

The worst is likely not over for LVS and WYNN, and the down staircases like these here (see the charts below) are likely going to get built soon in a lot of other stocks, and a lot of market sectors (even now take a glance at housing stocks and bank stocks and place bets).

(click on the charts for a larger view)