$SVXY – Just a heads up…

If you haven’t been sitting on the edge of your SVXY already, now is the time.

Back in January I did the bookend to this post in this link: $TVIX – Just a heads up… and reiterated it when the explosion began in this link: $TVIX – From heads up to launch up….

TVIX was at 40 or so then and hit a high of 1000 yesterday, while its little sister in the land of leveraged VIX relatives, UVXY started its own spectacular launch from 12 or so and hit 134 yesterday.

There’s only a month of it but enough of this past history. Can anyone hear me laughing at how insane this rum has been? It is time to turn attention to opposite trade on the VIX.

See the charts below.

VIX already is going sideways at an extremely high level but until today TVIX and UVXY didn’t seem to notice. Both took new stabs the highs today and closed below both their respective opens and closes from yesterday. While they haven’t quite broken any trend lines or any reasonable moving average, they both have truly big ugly, ominous, candles.

If TVIX and UVXY didn’t know the VIX might be done with its move until today, it would appear their leveraged counterpart, SVXY, hasn’t quit notice it yet (see the chart). With all this volatility ripping back and forth, it finished up a relatively paltry 3.3% today and produced a perfectly reasonable little white candle.

SVXY goes up as the VIX goes down. If it gets moving it can hit 35 in a flash, and 50 in a quick explosion of its own.

So heads up – there’s a good chance SVXY runs up tomorrow. If not tomorrow, soon…

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

#MarketTiming $SPY – Buy now, resell later…

Gotta be a bounce if only because it can’t go down forever.

CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index is at one. One. It can’t go below zero.

Forty-nine of my nifty-50 stock list are on sells with forty-eight of them oversold. I can’t remember 48 oversold all at once before.

The VIX is at 75. That is virtually a bear market momentum number.

The VIX leveraged ETFs, TVIX and UVXY, have been the stars of this market plunge. See the charts below. Since the NYSI downturn 13 trading days ago UVXY is up 40% and TVIX is up 72%

TVIX was at 40 when I posted this advance notice in January – $TVIX – Just a heads up… – and closed today at 399. Absolutely f-ing spectacular if I was so myself.

So what now?

This is a only a guess because I have no actual upturns anywhere – not in the NYMO, let alone the NYSI, not in price, not in volatility, definitely not in fear and greed but this exercise band is stretched so far, the market ether has to crash tomorrow or snap back.

I’m guessing the shorts cover only because they have made so much profit this week and it would be prudent to take some before the weekend.

Could be wrong.

President Incompetent could try to “reassure” the market again, or claim everything is hunky-dory again, or blame Obama again or blame the Fed yet again. (Hell, the Fed fought the NYSI mid-day today and lost that battle big time by the close.) Yes, yes he claims he knows a lot about the stock market but knows nothing so he slam the market down another thousand points or more…again

But if he shuts the tweet up…

My guess is it’s a buy now – not for the long term – and a resell later.

Regardless – tight stops.

(click on the charts for a larger view)

$TVIX – From heads up to launch up…

On January 14th, I posted this link as a “heads up” to the what was happening in the VIX and its related ETFs and ETNs like the 3x-leveraged TVIX:

$TVIX – Just a heads up…

“I don’t know what’s going to finally trigger it nor when it’s coming,” I wrote in that post, “but when this leveraged VIX ETF turns, it’s going to explode.”

The trigger turned out to be the old reliable standby – the NYSI, the McClellan Summation Index, as long-term breadth tripped under the price surface of the market, along with the first day TVIX did not make another new low. That was on 1/22 for a buy of TVIX on 1/23 (see the blue candles on the chart).

By the time TVIX finished its down swing, it made new lows 11 days in a row, four days after the “heads up” given here (see the blue vertical line and the pink dots on the chart below) – great anyone short any VIX-related product — but that was also a sign the pop was going be a bang, maybe even more than a bang – an explosion yet to come?

Since then, three trading days ago, TVIX is up 29.9% on today’s close. UVXY, the 2x-leverage ETF, is up 22.7%.

(click on the chart for a larger view)