#MarketTiming – Swing trading the bellwether stocks…

My swing signals, based on breadth, price and volatility, turned up in unison on April 3rd for a buy on the open of April 4th.

More importantly, short-term market breadth put in a divergent low in the midst of recent market thrusts to the downside. When that happens, the next step that usually confirms an upside swing is the upturn in long-term breadth. That confirmation came yesterday.

There was a previous discussion and chart of this yesterday HERE).

From stock trader’s or investor’s point of view, the purpose of market timing is tell when to buy. And once again, the bellwether stocks list proves that point.

My “bellwethers” are TSLA, NFLX, AMZN, BID, TWTR, BIDU, AAPL, GS, FB, NVDA, FSLR, BABA.

On the chart panel below, the white flag on the right axis is the current gain per $100k invested (also calculated for the percentage gain). At the moment, this upswing is lead by TSLA at 17%, followed by NFLX and AMZN, both up 6% plus. Remember when (three days ago) there was some dope speculating TSLA would go bankrupt and President Dumb-Ass was attacking AMZN like it actually owned the Washington Post? What a difference a day or two makes in swing trading.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

#BellwetherStocks – longer fangs for the new year?

Let’s put it this way:

NVDA UP 14%
NFLX UP 13%
AMZN UP 11.3%
TSLA UP 7.7%
BIDU UP 7.0%
GOOGL UP 6.8%
BABA UP 6.5%
TWTR UP 5.5%
AAPL UP 4.0%
FB UP .9%

The above are year-to-date returns – nine trading days – which is why they are the “bellwether stocks” for this melt-up bull market. They also happen to be the stocks in the NYFANG Index, up 8.4% year to date.

Also I would add FSLR, up 8.2%, as a bellwether for the future of energy.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

$TSLA – Is it the best long-term investment since $AAPL?

I am not much for Peter Lynch type anecdotal evidence as a basis for either fundamental analysis or technical analysis in the stock selection but one of my sons, who is 28 years old, recently gave me a lecture on the future of Tesla (TSLA) that actually made sense.

He believes TSLA will one day be the biggest market-cap stock in the market because it is the Apple (AAPL) of the car market.  His reasoning, at the risk of oversimplification, is that Apple’s iPhone took the world by storm for one reason beyond its intrinsic quality and usefulness – it dominates because it happened to be introduced to the market at the exact moment that his millennial generation was able to afford to buy the iPhone.  Now the TSLA is introducing its Model  3 at a price and a moment when the same millennial generation is reaching the point in their lives when they can want and afford one.

Simply put, he tells me, everyone he knows is on the Tesla waiting list for the Model 3.

According to reports, reservations for the car are now averaging 1800 per day and have far surpassed the 500,000 mark – http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/02/technology/business/tesla-earnings/index.html.

And if the reviews are any indications, that number is only going to increase as Tesla gets closer to delivering the vehicle – https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/auto/2018-tesla-model-3-review/.

And, more simply put from a long-term investment point of view, he points to AAPL”s current market cap north of $800 million and TSLA’s current market cap at $57 million and says “do the math.” TSLA has room to move up 14 times its price today.  Can this be true?  Well, when AAPL introduced iPhone in 2007 its stock was selling at a split-adjusted $11 per share.  It is now sells at close to $162 a share – 14 times its price at the iPhone’s introduction ten years ago (how about that?!).

So, as they say on Wall Street, what’s a price target on the upside for TSLA – $800 or so a share…

(click on the charts for a larger view)