#MarketTiming $SPY – Another day, another…

Had short-term sell signals across the board for Wednesday and the market went up. Marginally.

This bull is trending so hard, it hard to get even two down days in a rows, happens but it is hard. Especially when long-term breadth is rising. For the most part one want to be on the same side as long-term breadth.

For today, both Price and Short-term breadth (see the red circle on the chart below), have again given buy signal so the market should go up. “Should” is not a word that has been that predictable these days either on the long side or the short side although the long side has the edge.

Note: RIOT, the wild and crazy stock featured in yesterday’s timing post, did do what it was “supposed” to do, which was to go down — from 28 to 23.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 1).

PRICE: Buy. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 2).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 266.75
QQQ CLOSE – 155.99
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (67, rising, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 27 Buys; 6 Overbought, 3 Oversold, 4 new buys today, 4 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – said bounce and so it came to pass

Yesterday, my nifty-50 stock suggested a bounce in the market today and so it came to pass.

In the process, the bounce turned long-term breadth up, to go along with the buys now on all of the swing signals (see panel below). With 15 individual buy signals on the nifty-50 list today, the list itself moved to middle ground from oversold which would suggest more to come to the upside.

All of the leveraged index ETFs – TQQQ, XIV, UPRO, TNA – are buys on the open tomorrow, as well as 9 out of the 12 bellwether stocks I follow (see chart panel below).

With all of those positives in the midst of a bull market, one has to assume this is once again going up. Until it doesn’t.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 1).

PRICE: Buy. (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 3).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 264.07
QQQ CLOSE – 154.02
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (60, stalled, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 24 Buys; 8 Overbought, 10 Oversold, 15 new buys today, 1 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming $QQQ – a bounce nearly guaranteed…

Thirty-nine of the stocks on my nifty-50 stock list are on sells. Nineteen of those are oversold. If that number was 40 sells or more, I’d take out the “nearly” in the title above. Forty is the magic number that brings a bounce in the market within a day or two.

But only 39…so only nearly guaranteed…

See the chart below to view the stretch of sells (the red boxes) on the stock list and what happens next in the Nasdaq.

In addition two of my three swing signals – Price and Volatility – switched to buys while short-term breadth remained on a sell for the fourth day in a row. Four days down on breadth tends to also lead to an upward pop.

With long-term breadth on a sell, the bounce, if it come today, might be a one-day event but we’ll see.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: SEll (Day 2).

PRICE: Buy. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 4).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 263.24
QQQ CLOSE – 153.50
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (61, falling, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 11 Buys; 3 Overbought, 19 Oversold, 3 new buys today, 8 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$TQQQ – a Nasdaq bloodbath too far too fast?

TQQQ, the 3x-leverage ETF based on the Nasdaq 100 stocks (NDX), was down 5.4% today, a bloodbath that affected many of the bellwether Nasdaq stocks in the index.

See the table below:

(click on the image for a larger view)

NVDA down 14 points, NFLX down 11, and so on. Pretty ugly in the momentum bellwethers.

There was a fake-out nudge to the upside Tuesday, but can’t say today’s slam down was unexpected. Posted this two days ago:

This could be tricky since long-term breadth continues to climb (up for the fourth day). Given that, if short-term breadth turns up here in the next day or two (or bless a bottom dollar, three days), the market would get another bullish boost. If long-term breadth turns down, this could very easily become the hook that catches every bull off guard. Although the bull market has so far defied the signs over and over again, it is inevitable that one of these times, like today, when the signals signal a turn, the turn will come. Probably when the bears are worn out and the bulls don’t expect anything of on their blindside.

If today’s sell off continues, that will be relevant, but there are signs this is done already.

Nearly every time TQQQ falls through the standard deviation lines (the blocks on the green lines on the chart below), the Nasdaq bounces the next day or two days out (the red vertical lines on the chart). It is as if any fall this far is too far too fast. And oftentimes in this bull market, the bounce becomes another rally (see the diamonds on the chart are TQQQ). In fact, a look-black on the chart shows this last great upswing in the Nasdaq, which began in late September, started with a touch down on the green lines just like today.

So I’m looking for the bounce, and looking to ride a rally if it develops here (Santa time?), and if it doesn’t then the suggestion in the quote above might indeed be a sea change in the market.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 6).

PRICE: Sell. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 262.31
QQQ CLOSE – 153.89
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (67, rising, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 14 Buys; 11 Overbought, 8 Oversold, 6 new buys today, 3 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – hard to call a pause, let alone a pullback…

But if there is to be a pause, there’s a good chance it will be now.

All of my short-term signals — Price, Breadth, Volatility – turned down on this lackluster day (see table below), and CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index turned down too. Twenty of the stocks in my nifty-50 stock list gave individual sell signals. That may be a bit deceptive since the stock list was sorted over the weekend and came into the day maybe too strongly bullish, and then again it may be a harbinger of a pause when even the strongest slow down.

So, if there’s a pause here, can it turn into a pull back?

This could be tricky since long-term breadth continues to climb (up for the fourth day). Given that, if short-term breadth turns up here in the next day or two (or bless a bottom dollar, three days), the market would get another bullish boost. If long-term breadth turns down, this could very easily become the hook that catches every bull off guard. Although the bull market has so far defied the signs over and over again, it is inevitable that one of these times, like today, when the signals signal a turn, the turn will come. Probably when the bears are worn out and the bulls don’t expect anything of on their blindside.

Maybe right now is day one. Maybe not.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 4).

PRICE: Sell. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 260.23
QQQ CLOSE – 156.19
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (52, falling, neutral level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 14 Buys; 10 Overbought, 0 Oversold, 2 new buys today, 20 new sells.

$KC_F (TRADE UPDATE) – Coffee futures up 21% in 3 days.

Coffee futures, started on the close of 11/21, three trading days ago, at 123.85 at now up 21% on margin.

COFFEE – START OF TRADE

And they are up a magic four days in a row (see the white dots on the chart below), so moving the stop to 125.50 to lock in half the profits and putting a breakeven stop on the second half. In other words, this upswing needs to keep rallying right away or at least half of the position will be closed.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – up strong today, more tomorrow…

As projected yesterday, when all the short-term signals turned up in unison, the market had a strong blast to the upside today.

Long-term breadth turned positive after a 25-day decline so one assume there is more to come in pre-holiday trading. Except for being overbought – forty of the stocks in my nifty-50 stock list are on buys with 28 overbought – this rally could carry beyond the Thanksgiving holiday.

Bulls, give thanks.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 1).

PRICE: Buy. (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 4).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 4).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 259.99
QQQ CLOSE – 155.50
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (54, rising, neutral level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 40 Buys; 28 Overbought, 4 Oversold, 6 new buys today, 2 new sells.

$KC_F – Coffee futures rack up 40% short, reverse long…

Coffee futures, after a dip in its past five trades, has regained its swing-trade mojo.

With the 40% gain on margin for the trade ending today (a five-day trade), Coffee is again up more than 430% over its margin requirement for the year to date on swing trades, long and short.

Phenomenal.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – Swing signals positive for stock buys

All of the swing signals – based on Price, Breadth and Volatility – are on buys and even the all important long-term breadth is threatening to go positive.

It would appear we are entering a seasonally positive time.

On a stock trading note: four of the 10 stocks in my bellwether stock list have a good chance, if the market rallies as is likely Tuesday, of following the market:
NFLX
NVDA
BID
FSLR

See the positive candles today on each of those stocks on the chart panel below. Like the stock market itself, expect stocks that are up to follow-through and go up until they don’t. And, of course, if the market rallies it is also likely AAPL will again participate (always good for a bounce, a scalp, or an option-play).

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 20).

PRICE: Buy. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 3).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 3).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 258.30
QQQ CLOSE – 153.87
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (50, rising, neutral level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 35 Buys; 16 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 1 new buys today, 6 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#SwingTrading – ready for a quick bounce…

Damage has been going on inside the market for several days and finally the indexes showed some of it with all major indexes down today.

But just as the market is looking vulnerable to more decline (and may get some), the swing signals are getting oversold (see table below). Price is down only two days in a row but only two minor upticks kept it from being down five from the last high up day. CNN Money’s Fear and Green index continued to ratchet down. Long-term breadth is down 22 days. That’s getting to be a long time and it is now deeply oversold. And the Short-term Breadth and Volatility signals are both down five consecutive days. Five days is usually too many without a bounce.

So tomorrow I expect a bounce, maybe even a swing up into Friday’s options expiration close.

Among the bellwether stocks (see charts below) TSLA, FB and BABA appear to be candidate for the scalps on the bounce. Also, if the market is going to have a couple days to the upside, there is a good chance AAPL (also down five days in a row) will participate.

After Friday?

…Worry about that over the weekend.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 22).

PRICE: Sell. (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 5).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 5).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 256.44
QQQ CLOSE – 152.59
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (53, falling, neutral level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 14 Buys; 3 Overbought, 14 Oversold, 3 new buys today, 11 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)