$TVIX – From heads up to launch up…

On January 14th, I posted this link as a “heads up” to the what was happening in the VIX and its related ETFs and ETNs like the 3x-leveraged TVIX:

$TVIX – Just a heads up…

“I don’t know what’s going to finally trigger it nor when it’s coming,” I wrote in that post, “but when this leveraged VIX ETF turns, it’s going to explode.”

The trigger turned out to be the old reliable standby – the NYSI, the McClellan Summation Index, as long-term breadth tripped under the price surface of the market, along with the first day TVIX did not make another new low. That was on 1/22 for a buy of TVIX on 1/23 (see the blue candles on the chart).

By the time TVIX finished its down swing, it made new lows 11 days in a row, four days after the “heads up” given here (see the blue vertical line and the pink dots on the chart below) – great anyone short any VIX-related product — but that was also a sign the pop was going be a bang, maybe even more than a bang – an explosion yet to come?

Since then, three trading days ago, TVIX is up 29.9% on today’s close. UVXY, the 2x-leverage ETF, is up 22.7%.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – the Santa Claus rally goes crazy

The Santa Claus rally which arrived with a buy signal on the open of December 9th, is still going and going and going…

I wrote about this quiet rally trigger first in this link:

#MarketTiming – with not much fanfare Santa slips into view

Then, as the fanfare took hold:

#MarketTiming – the Santa Claus Rally, a progress report

Since that second post, TQQQ has gone from up from 9% to 17.7%, UPRO from 6% to 11.2%. The 3x-leveraged sector ETFs continue to surge: TECL (tech) up 21% now, ERX (energy) up 18.1% and SOXL (semis) up 29.9%. Among the bellwether stocks I follow, TSLA is leading the pack, up 27% now; NVDA up 13.4%; WYNN up 18.2% on a big jump out of a high-level consolidation today.

AAPL, which lagged early on, has now moved up a nice 10.9%, closing above 300.

Big gains in not much time – the rally is a mere 17 trading days old.

All of which is great for the bulls…except it’s all begun to go kind of crazy.

AAPL has a market cap of $1.3 trillion, somewhat insane no matter how much cash the company generates for buy-backs. MSFT is at $1.2 trillion; both GOOGL and AMZN are knocking on the trillion-dollar door. These stocks have market caps four and five times such “puny” companies as Walmart, Coca-Cola, Nike, Proctor and Gamble, Home Depot and even Exxon-Mobil. How crazy is this?

Speaking of buy-backs, corporate debt is likely piling up more and more as the FED keeps its foot on the printing-press pedal – margin debt did not move much last month so all this “irrational exuberance” has to be coming from somewhere.”

CNN Money’s “Fear and Greed” Index is at 97. Ninety-seven! That in and of itself is the stratosphere of extreme greed. It can’t go higher than 100. A year ago it touched 3, on a trap door that swings both ways.

Still, the market can go higher, and probably will, since there is momentum in that 97 number. It usually takes a divergence (a high below a high) in that index to trigger a decent down swing (see the red circles on the chart below). The index has to back off on a market dip (which is likely imminent) then fail to go higher as the market resumes its advance to another high.

And both breadth measures, the NYMO (short-term) and the all-important NYSI (longer-term) remain positive. So there is time for more rally.

Not much more to say at this time…except to note in markets going crazy (like 1999, like now) there is, in the end, no profit until one sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – the Santa Claus Rally, a progress report

On December 6th, the all-important NYSI, measuring longer-term market breadth, turned up signalling an on-coming upswing in the market beginning the open of Monday, December 9th. It was an unusual turn in that it preceded the NYMO short-term breadth indicator.

That doesn’t usually happen unless there’s been a V-bottom in price on the most recent downswing. And, in this case there was, and the NYMO confirmed the rally on 12/11 giving its own buy signal for the open of 12/12 when I wrote this entry below:

#MarketTiming – with not much fanfare Santa slips into view

Since then most of the major indexes, and their 3x-leveraged ETFs, have been up a cumulative eight days. Needless to say, the market is overbought. CNN Money’s Fear and Greed index is at 90, an “Extreme Greed” level, a level which eventually leads to sells downs.

Consequently, the market could take a dip or a tumble anytime (although with Christmas yet to come everything remains bullish). With that in mind, me thinks it’s time for swing traders and anyone else who feels comfortable taking profits should either tighten stops under the advance or cash out some of the gains.

Among the major leveraged ETFs, TQQQ is 9.0% for the eight days, TNA up 6.3%, UPRO up 6.0%. In the leveraged sector ETFs, TECL is up 10.4%, ERX (remarkably) up 10.3% and SOXL is up a whopping 19.6%. Eight trading days.

Notable stocks in my bellwether group include TSLA up 19.5%, NVDA up 11.3%, SHOP up 7.5%, NFLX up 7.9%. AAPL usually gets the press coverage but it’s a laggard at up 3.6%. Still, it’s just eight trading days.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – with not much fanfare Santa slips into view

On a FED day as the Federal Reserve held firm on low interest rates, it appears the annual Santa Claus rally may have quietly slipped into view despite the tight trading of the past few days.

Possibly it’s even set up a for a fast move by the tight trading.

Appropriate timing, I guess, since it’s hard to fathom this market continuing to rally on anything other than the FED pump, pump, pump…

Regardless, the NYMO put in a low above a low today (see the chart below), to go along with the important NYSI’s rise for the past four days. That completes the breadth pattern that is a most reliable trigger for a sustained up swing.

Since the last time the NYMO put in a low above a low on October 8th, SPY has rallied seven percent.

I would venture to suggest about the only thing that could abort the rally would be the Tweeter in chief scattering the trade-talk sticks again. Reportedly he is meeting tomorrow with advisors to discuss the proposed Dec 15th tariffs against China. Since when has he listened to advisors? So anything can happen.

In the meantime, one has to respect the signals and be long, and buying dips, until further notice.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY #Options – day trading calls 10/15

The market context for these trades is outlined in this post – #MarketTiming – the NYMO low above a low. It is in place.

ENTRY:

FIRST HALF PROFITS:

CLOSE OF TRADE:

All Twitter time stamps are Pacific time.

PLEASE NOTE: None of the entries in this blog should ever be construed as investment advice or trading recommendations. They are presented solely for entertainment and educational purposes, and to record trading activities for my own personal trading journal.

#MarketTiming – $NYSI $10K stock trades

Long-term breadth (the NYSI) turned up Friday giving a buy signal for the open of the market today.

As suggested in this link #MarketTiming – the NYMO low above a low that was expected and would be necessary to have a chance for a rally. Today’s trading was sloppy sideways, probably just digesting last week’s gains, and although the NYSI did decline it stayed in positive territory.

If there is further weakness, there could be a whipsaw, but we’ll see when we see…

In the meantime, I expect more follow through to the upside.

In this link: #MarketTiming with $10,000 to trade I thought I’d sometimes address trading on limited capital — for the fun of it, for entertainment here and for anyone with limited capital.

The late great Kennedy Gammage of the Richland Report and for many years the keeper of the McClellan Oscillator flame, once wisely said: “Buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you.” If I may, I would add to that “Also buy when the stock tells you.”

If one has but $10k, one needs to study up and pick stock favorites that have the ability to move with the market. Most stocks do move with the market but obviously some move better than others.

Today on Twitter I posted some Day-1 results selected by from my own bellwether stock list as examples of buying with the market as measured by the NYSI either turning up or turning down. Although, $10k readily computeS to a percentage gain or loss, I’m stating those gains in dollars gained or lost.

Clicking on the charts here will display larger chart details on Twitter.

THE WINNERS:

AND ONE LOSER TO SHOW NOTHING’S PERFECT:

#MarketTiming – the NYMO low above a low

One of the signs of a true bull market is the follow through off a low-above-a-low pattern in short-term breadth (the NYMO).

The signal is displayed in the top portion of the chart below.

It is buy signal for aggressive traders looking for a rally to begin off a meaningful market bottom. In bull markets, it almost always has follow through to the upside immediately. That hasn’t quite happened in recent months, which has made everything in the current market psychology suspect. See August on the chart as an example.

But it did happen today — after triggering yesterday for today’s open, there was the immediate follow through to the upside.

Now the bulls need long-term breadth (the NYSI) to turn up in the next day or two, which is the trending signal. The NYSI is the smoothed line in the middle of the chart below. It is still falling but…

If both breadth indicators get in line, there is a good chance the market rallies strongly, possibly for several weeks, maybe back to the recent highs, maybe higher.

But, of course, as has happened all through these unstable times, it will be a rally that can be killed by a tweet.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – okay, we are close to a bounce…

Okay, we are close to a bounce.

Pretty much everything is oversold.

All of 3x-leveraged ETFs I follow are on sells and oversold – eight out of eight – TQQQ, TNA, FAS, LABU, ERX, SOXL, FNGU, UPRO.

That does not happen often. Last time they were all together all at once (in August), TQQQ went from 55 to 64 in the next four days and to 69 in six.

But SPY is the indicator to consider this time (see the chart below).

SPY is at a level it rarely sees, five times actually since May, and each time signaled at least a bounce if not tomorrow (Thursday), soon…

Given that SPY is a broad measure of the general market and a big-money index, when it bounces it will take most of the market with it so it might be prudent for swing-trading shorts to tighten stops or take some profits here.

Regardless, a bounce now will still be a bounce to sell again.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY – Bounce back to last week again

MARKET TIMING SIGNALS FOR 9/4/2019.

Long-Term Breadth (the NYSI): Buy DAY 5
Short-Term Breadth (the NYMO): Buy DAY 1
Price (the Nasdaq COMP): Buy DAY 1
Volatility (the VIX): Buy Day 1
Nifty-50-Stock-List: 23 BUYS, 12 NEW BUYS, 11 OVERBOUGHT; 27 SELLS, 2 NEW SELLS, 6 OVERSOLD.
CNN MONEY’S “Fear and Greed” Index: 30, Rising, FEAR LEVEL.
Bellwether Stocks: 14 UP, 1 DOWN.

WHAT?

The market had a strong advance today taking it once again to the top of its free-swinging month-long consolidation.

It seems like I have written this post three time now. Seems like? I indeed have.

See $SPY up against a high wall and ready to rise and $SPY – From Friday to Friday to “deja vu all over again” below.

In other words, we’ve hads a whole lotta bouncing around going nowhere.

WHAT NEXT?

Short-term breadth (the NYMO) has been making choppy lows above lows since it bottomed August 2nd (see the black line in the middle section of the chart below) and the all-important NYSI has been rising now for five days.

Taken together those indicators make it appear SPY is about to break above its overhead resistance at 293/294 and move to the recent high around 300 on this up swing, but the ETF has appeared perched to do that twice before this month and still hasn’t done it.

I would think another turn down would be most discouraging for the short-term bulls and might bring a harder sell off.

But I don’t think that’s going to happen (I know…just as soon as it’s said it won’t, it will).

The Fear and Greed Index is gradually making it’s way higher. My nifty-50 stock list had 39 stocks on buy last time SPY took a look at this high wall of resitance, but now the list has only 23 stocks on buys, giving room to move to the upside. VIX turned down today to add another short-term indication there can be follow through to the upside.

Unless President Twitterdumb intervenes again, I think this time SPY goes higher probably for the rest of the week and taking the general market with it. But I will day trade Friday’s SPY puts if it doesn’t.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY – From Friday to Friday to “de ja vu all over again”

MARKET TIMING SIGNALS FOR 8/30/2019.

Long-Term Breadth (the NYSI): Buy DAY 2
Short-Term Breadth (the NYMO): Buy DAY 2
Price (the Nasdaq COMP): Buy DAY 2
Volatility (the VIX): Buy Day 2
Nifty-50-Stock-List: 39 BUYS, 15 NEW BUYS, 10 OVERBOUGHT; 11 SELLS, 0 NEW SELLS, 3 OVERSOLD.
CNN MONEY’S “Fear and Greed” Index: 28, Rising, FEAR LEVEL.
Bellwether Stocks: 11 UP, 4 DOWN.

WHAT?

The market, after yesterday’s buy signal on all indicators, actually followed through today with a strong upside move.

As a result of the last two up days, we are right back right back to where we were five trading days ago with the SPY trying again to break out of its consolidation box (see the grey box on the chart below). Since last Friday into Wednesday, we’ve had Trump rally-killing tweets and at least a hint that China may timing the market to compound what he does with Twitter. The market quieted down on Wednesday on light volume with solid up day.

WHAT NEXT?

The NYSI, NYMO, Nasdaq Comp, and the VIX are all on buy signals.

Trump tanked the market last Friday and maybe he can manage to blunder into doing it again but, based on the technical indicators, the market “should” have at least one more up day going into the holiday weekend.

That is about all that needs to be said except to note the Fear and Greed index is up on the day and still at a level that gives it a lot of room to move to the upside if the SPY overcomes resistance that top of its consolidation.

(click on the chart for a larger view)