$SPY #Options – day trading calls 10/15

The market context for these trades is outlined in this post – #MarketTiming – the NYMO low above a low. It is in place.

ENTRY:

FIRST HALF PROFITS:

CLOSE OF TRADE:

All Twitter time stamps are Pacific time.

PLEASE NOTE: None of the entries in this blog should ever be construed as investment advice or trading recommendations. They are presented solely for entertainment and educational purposes, and to record trading activities for my own personal trading journal.

#MarketTiming – $NYSI $10K stock trades

Long-term breadth (the NYSI) turned up Friday giving a buy signal for the open of the market today.

As suggested in this link #MarketTiming – the NYMO low above a low that was expected and would be necessary to have a chance for a rally. Today’s trading was sloppy sideways, probably just digesting last week’s gains, and although the NYSI did decline it stayed in positive territory.

If there is further weakness, there could be a whipsaw, but we’ll see when we see…

In the meantime, I expect more follow through to the upside.

In this link: #MarketTiming with $10,000 to trade I thought I’d sometimes address trading on limited capital — for the fun of it, for entertainment here and for anyone with limited capital.

The late great Kennedy Gammage of the Richland Report and for many years the keeper of the McClellan Oscillator flame, once wisely said: “Buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you.” If I may, I would add to that “Also buy when the stock tells you.”

If one has but $10k, one needs to study up and pick stock favorites that have the ability to move with the market. Most stocks do move with the market but obviously some move better than others.

Today on Twitter I posted some Day-1 results selected by from my own bellwether stock list as examples of buying with the market as measured by the NYSI either turning up or turning down. Although, $10k readily computeS to a percentage gain or loss, I’m stating those gains in dollars gained or lost.

Clicking on the charts here will display larger chart details on Twitter.

THE WINNERS:

AND ONE LOSER TO SHOW NOTHING’S PERFECT:

#ShortStrangles on #Stocks – 10/14-10/18

THIS WEEKS SHORT STRANGLES:

LAST WEEKS RESULTS:

A PERTINENT QUESTION ON TWITTER:

$SPY #Options – day trading calls 10/11

These trades are based on this strategy:

#Options – Buying Calls and Puts

And this context:

#MarketTiming – the NYMO low above a low

INITIAL ENTRY:

FIRST HALF PLUS 50%:

SECOND HALF CLOSE OF THE TRADE PLUS 46%:

All Twitter timestamps are Pacific time:

#MarketTiming – the NYMO low above a low

One of the signs of a true bull market is the follow through off a low-above-a-low pattern in short-term breadth (the NYMO).

The signal is displayed in the top portion of the chart below.

It is buy signal for aggressive traders looking for a rally to begin off a meaningful market bottom. In bull markets, it almost always has follow through to the upside immediately. That hasn’t quite happened in recent months, which has made everything in the current market psychology suspect. See August on the chart as an example.

But it did happen today — after triggering yesterday for today’s open, there was the immediate follow through to the upside.

Now the bulls need long-term breadth (the NYSI) to turn up in the next day or two, which is the trending signal. The NYSI is the smoothed line in the middle of the chart below. It is still falling but…

If both breadth indicators get in line, there is a good chance the market rallies strongly, possibly for several weeks, maybe back to the recent highs, maybe higher.

But, of course, as has happened all through these unstable times, it will be a rally that can be killed by a tweet.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#ShortStrangles on Stocks 10/07 – 10/11

This week’s strangles:

Last week’s results:

(Percentage gains and losses reflect returns on cost of strangles, not margin needed for the trade.)

#MarketTiming – okay, we are close to a bounce…

Okay, we are close to a bounce.

Pretty much everything is oversold.

All of 3x-leveraged ETFs I follow are on sells and oversold – eight out of eight – TQQQ, TNA, FAS, LABU, ERX, SOXL, FNGU, UPRO.

That does not happen often. Last time they were all together all at once (in August), TQQQ went from 55 to 64 in the next four days and to 69 in six.

But SPY is the indicator to consider this time (see the chart below).

SPY is at a level it rarely sees, five times actually since May, and each time signaled at least a bounce if not tomorrow (Thursday), soon…

Given that SPY is a broad measure of the general market and a big-money index, when it bounces it will take most of the market with it so it might be prudent for swing-trading shorts to tighten stops or take some profits here.

Regardless, a bounce now will still be a bounce to sell again.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming with $10,000 to trade

On Twitter I’ve been suggesting $10K trades for traders with not much capital, primarily as option trades. Today, for instance, a $10,000 trade in the SPY 292 put, today’s expiration, would take home a nearly $13K profit.

Spectacular, yes, but definitely not an everyday event. And it is a trade in options that, risk-wise, is probably beyond most amateur traders.

So I’m thinking, for fun and practicality and discussion’s sake, to say nothing of the entertainment purposes here, I’m going to scale this all back to $10,000 trades in stocks and ETFs, and $1,000 trades in options, and I’m going to state cash gains and losses instead of percentages. (Of course at $10k and $1K still translate easily to a percentage count too.)

As they say, show me the money…

For example right now, since the all-important swing-trading signal, the NYSI, measuring long-term market breadth, turned down September 24th, giving a trade entry for the open of September 25th, a mere six trading days ago, $10,00 in the 3x-inverse-leveraged ETFs (they go up when their index goes down) would have earned approximately %581 in SQQQ, $,1031 in TZA, $800 in SPXS, the major Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P index ETFs.

In the sector inverse ETFs, $10,000 in financial FAZ would have earned $915, in the biotech LABD $1,868, in the semi-conductor SOXS $468, and the energy-based ERY $2021.

We are talking only six trading days and only $10,000 to trade.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#Stocks – and out of the blue the brokerages fell…

Reportedly, this slam down in the brokerage stock is a result of Charles Schwab (SCHW) announcing a no-commission policy for online trade with presumably its competitors to follow.

And this is precipitated, according to reports, by the brokerage Robin Hood, which has been not charging for trades since its beginning. Robin Hood? Compared to these others, is that even a competitive trading house?

Regardless, SCHW, AMTD, ETFC, and IBKR are (at the moment) down either double-digit percentages or close to it in an out-of-the-blue across-the-board plummet. AMTD is down 23% (Holy cow!).

Whatever.

I would note the NYSI (long-term breadth) is falling. When it is, “accidents” like these often happen.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

#MarijuanaStocks – the wither in the weed patch…

At one point last year, the marijuana stock sector was the leading sector in the entire market.

Everywhere analysts were hailing it as the next great growth sector, especially after Canada joined several states in the U.S. to legalize weed, both medically and for recreational use. Made sense, and before anyone could say “don’t Bogart that joint” there were cannabis shops practically fighting Starbucks for retail space.

#MarijuanaStocks – gains are high in the weed patch

At one point, the founder and CEO of TLRY, because he owned so much stock in his heralded IPO, was something like the fourth richest man in the world…for a day. But now that day is done.

The chart panel below tells the rest of the story and there is not much more to say about that.

(click on the charts for a larger view)