$SPY #Options – Puts on a put day….

This Tweet was made at the time today’s 284 put (282 on the chart is a typo) hit a 100% profit for the day.

The day-trading strategy, which I call “BUY THE YELLOW, SELL THE BLUE,” topped out up 144%. and even with the choppiness at the end of the day managed to register a 76% gain (see the final chart below).

(click on the chart for a full view of the Tweet)

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY – the slide from the top continues…

MARKET TIMING SIGNALS FOR 5/8/2019.

Long-Term Breadth (NYSI): SELL FROM 5/6.
Short-Term Breadth (NYMO): SELL FROM 5/6.
Price: SELL FROM 5/6.
Nifty-50-Stock-List: 18 BUYS, 3 NEW BUYS, 7 OVERBOUGHT; 32 SELLS, 1 NEW SELLS, 16 OVERSOLD.
CNN MONEY’S “Fear and Greed” Index: 41, FALLING, FEAR LEVEL.
Bellwether Stocks: 5 UP, 10 DOWN.

OF NOTE SPY OPTIONS:

SPY CALLS AND PUTS, BOTH, were down on the day as a tight sideways chop all day slammed premium for Friday’s expiration on both sides of the market. (See the charts below for how bad it was.)

The most nimble of options traders could make money, at great risk, buying the yellows And selling the blues on the charts below, but not much. The not-so-nimble could lose a lot.

WHAT:

It appears the market has been moving on Trump tweets. That is as absurd as it can get since he should not be tweeting about any of this and the market shouldn’t be paying any attention to any thing he tweets. The New York Times broke a story on ten years of his tax returns during a time he lost more than a billion dollars, all of the money his father gave him a lot more. Surely, one of the worst businessmen in history but a major-league con-man. His beloved Twitter has hung #BillionDollarLoser on him.

If the market focuses more and more on the Trump administration turmoil in Washington, it is likely to unstable for some time.

WHAT’S NEXT?

All sell signals remain in place – as usual this is a market can can go down as long as it wants and turn up any time. That sharp drop in the calls and the rise in the puts in the last twenty minutes of the day on the 10-minute charts below may hint there is more downside to come right away tomorrow but news, like a trade deal with China, can intervene.

This is a dangerous time for short-term traders. On the longer term, every bear market begins (or resumes) on a single down day and that day was six days ago to start this current slide.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY #Options – Year’s 35th trending day nets 200%

No surprise today’s rapid bear-market rally notched the 35th trending day of the year in what I call “the fool’s game” – buying calls and puts solely as day trades.

With SPY opening at 269.60, it was today’s expiration in-the-money 268 call that trended all day to a 203% gain on the close, $20,331 on each $10K traded (see the chart below on the left). Today’s at-the-money 269 call trended to a 336% gain (see the chart below on the right). The key to these gains is trading strikes nearest to expiration with the choice between in-the-money and at-the-money (or out-of-the-money for that matter) being entirely up to an individual trader’s risk tolerance.

Trending days obviously are the days when all the profits get booked. The rest of the trading days have resulted in net losses overall. Losses on their own that are rather huge.

This is a highly risky strategy that takes extreme measures of persistence, discipline and experience to execute.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY – I may keep this chart forever

What a day this day was!

Here’s my tweet from this morning.

The blue chart below is the result with the profits per my $10K day-trading options strategy in the white flag on the lower right – up 328% on the close.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#DayTrading $SPY #Options – today’s 291 put UPDATED

–The 291 put, in the money, and up 100-plus percent at the moment…

The total per $10K traded (also the percentage gain) is in the white flag on the lower right of the updated chart below.

My definition of a trending day is any time the trade in the calls, puts, or a combination of both gains more than 100%. Today’s put may not hold to the close at more than 100% but it has touched that level for the second day in a row (yesterday it faded to just under 100%).

(right click on the chart for a larger view of this UPDATED CHART)

$SPY Options UPDATED – a day worth trading for 95%

For the past three days SPY puts have been itching to go up, and today they went.

See the blue-gray bars on the chart below going into the close yesterday for an example. That’s the way the color-coding has been all three days.

At the moment, the in-the-money 292 put for Friday’s expiration is up 110%, $10K-Plus for each $10K in play.

I define a “trending day” as anytime the calls or puts on the day trade close up with a profit of more than 100% on my system trigger.  That, of course, is yet to be seen today (will update on the close).

UPDATE ON CLOSE: The 292 put closed up 95.09%, $9509 per $10K traded, just missing being an official trending day. It peaked during the day at up 190.5% and gave and intraday stop at up 134.9% (see the end of the blue/gray bars on the updated chart below).

As a result, trending days so far this year remain at 27.

Day trading options on the closest expiration is always volatile.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

DAYTRADE2018-08-24_1113

 

The $10K options trade – $SPY today for 103%

Had a loser in the calls to start the day, and another in the puts, but the hard run up in the calls for 180% at the end netted a 103% total gain for the day.

This trade late in the day was in the 267 in-the-money call expiring today, 91 call contracts initially for the loss, then back in for 111 contracts to the close (see chart below).

But if anyone harbors any illusions about this being easy psychologically, divest yourself of those straight away. Trading $10,000 worth of the nearest in-the-money strike at the closest expiration, still has me down 74% for the week, $7,405 on a $10K gamble in each trade after losses of 93% on Monday and 83% on Tuesday. Obviously, it is a strategy that can only be traded with a small portion of any account or portfolio. And even then it is flat out scary at times.

Fast money when it goes your way, and it seems even faster when it goes against you.

(click) on the chart for a larger view)

The $10K Day-Trade – $SPY Options on Fridays

This is all about buying calls and puts for day trades.

And again, ITM 261 SPY weekly option, expiring today, has vaulted past 100% for the day for another trending day (see other posts below).

The white flag on the lower right of the chart below is the dollar gain today so far per $10K traded, also the percentage gain.

The key to these trades is they are day trades in the most liquid call or put, in or at the money, on the nearest expiration to minimize time decay and to get the biggest bang for the buck; using whatever entry a trader is comfortable with, using a stop loss to guard against big losers; and finally taking full or partial profits when one has them, on a breakeven reversal, or on a trailing stop, or into too much strength, but no later than the close of the day.

The day trades on Friday have accounted for 57% of the gains this year.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

Buying $SPY Puts for a 12% #DayTrading profit…

There are only three things that can happen if a trader BUYS an option – the option goes the trader’s way, the option goes against the trader, the option goes sideways losing on time decay.

Two out of the three are bad for the option buyer.

So is it a fool’s game?

Doesn’t have to be. Not for day traders.

Let’s take SPY options as an example — very liquid across multiple strikes, tight spreads, hardly any time decay on a trade for only a day, a stop-loss is close by and immediate, and the profits, if there is trend for the day, can be substantial, even rather astounding.

The key, as always, is an entry signal the trader is comfortable with. Each signal is for a buy-in of $5,000, up to five signals ($25,000).

TODAY:

Had four buy signals during the day (three early, one later, see the chart below) for the weekly in-the-money SPY 259 PUT. The net gain for the day on the close was $2400, or 12% on the four trades worth $20k.

Interesting to note before the market firmed up late in the day, the peak of the first three trade was $8000, and on the four trades was $7200. An intraday exit on the first red bar after the peak (see the chart) would have netted $6000 instead of waiting for the close.

Sometimes it pays to be nimble. But not waiting for the close, in other words “not being mechanical”, can often wreak havoc on a trader’s psychology and emotional stability over the long run. Just saying…

(click on the chart for a larger view)

Buying $SPY calls for a 12.6% #DayTrading profit…

There are only three things that can happen if a trader BUYS an option – the option goes the trader’s way, the option goes against the trader, the option goes sideways losing on time decay.

Two out of the three are bad for the option buyer.

So is it a fool’s game?

Doesn’t have to be. Not for day traders.

Let’s take SPY options as an example — very liquid across multiple strikes, tight spreads, hardly any time decay on a trade for only a day, a stop-loss is close by and immediate, and the profits, if there is trend for the day, can be substantial, even rather astounding.

The key, as always, is an entry signal the trader is comfortable with.

Had five buy signals as SPY trended steadily up during the day. With each buy at $5k, the trades on the weekly 258 calls (expiring Friday) totaled $25k, and netted about $3150, or 12.6% for the day trade.

(click on the chart for a larger view)