$Stocks – Bellwethers “sure to bounce”…bounced.

As this week draws to a close, thought I’d take a look back at the bellwether stocks I suggested were oversold and sure to bounce with the market.

Note this link from February 11:

Bellwethers stocks sure to bounce…

The bellwether stocks are AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, NFLX, GOOGL, BIDU, BABA, TWTR, FB, FSLR, BID, and GS.

Been two weeks since it was suggested the bellwether bounce would be sure to happen with the general market’s current up swing and the group has been led by BIDU up 13.5%, NFLX up 10.4%, TSLA up 9.6%, and both AMZN and FSLR north of 8%. The laggards have been TWTR, BID, and FB.

All twelve of the stocks in the basket are in the black on this swing trade.

For an easy comparison between the then and the now see the charts below. The white flags on the lower right of each chart show the cash (and percentage) gains per $100K committed to each trade for the past two weeks.

If the market continues up after this week’s sideways slide, mounting a further rally, these stocks are sure to go higher again with it, probably with the laggards playing some catch-up.

(click on the charts for a larger view)


The SEC spies a $RIOT

I look at stock of Riot Blockchain (symbol: RIOT) everyday since it somehow sorted itself into the number-one spot on my nifty-50 stock list. In the entry from December below I was mystified:


This is the company that was in veterinary products until it changed its name from Bioptix to Riot Blockchain, not only to accidentally vault to number one on my list but also to grab onto the latest cryptocurrency/blockchain craze for itself. On the name change alone it went from from $4 to $40 in no time at all. Since then it has done nothing but decline, decline, decline. Needless to say, everything here was dicey from the start.

So it is no surprise that it was announced today that the SEC is picking up the dice and taking a look. The stock, once the leader in this shenanigan sector, is down 37% today.

In the meantime the other stocks in the sector, although following the same pattern as RIOT from the beginning, don’t seem to have noticed RIOT’s drop today (see charts below). Maybe the story is different with each of them (OSTK, formerly Overstock.Com, recently picked up an investment from none other than George Soros), or maybe they just have not focused on the implications of the SEC opening their barn doors.

Good luck, fellows. Cash in your bitcoins…if you can.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#Stocks – the tails that wag the banking dogs

As I recall back in 2007 or so there was a moment when the banking stocks were making new highs while the housing stocks had long since died.

Needless to say the rest in 2008 became history.

So are we there again? Stuck that “history repeats” thing again? Or is it different this time?

At moment the answers are out. Home building stocks are down on the creep up in interest rates and the overheating in the retail housing markets and the current pullback in the general market but maybe not out yet since we are still in a bull market overall. The banks are so far holding near the highs.

I bring this up just as a heads up.

Watch the tail – it will tell if the dog will die.

(click on the charts for a larger view)

#STOCKS – Gonna huff and puff and blow your house down…

It’s never advisable to short a sector making a straight up move in a bull market. So let’s just call this a heads-up on a sector where sometime soon heads are going to roll.

Housing stocks and housing prices have gone crazy again. Just like in…uh, 2007. History repeats here and I suppose there are those out there in major cities bidding up asking prices on the belief that it’s different this time and even if is isn’t ten years or so from now they will break even on the house they overpay for today.

But it must be noted Toll Brothers (TOL), always the leading stock in the sector, took 6.4% hit today on its earning miss and gave a blow to the rest of the sector at the same time (see the chart panel below). From a charting point of view, today left a lot of uncertainty, if not downright fright, in the sector as measured by all those bearish candle patterns in the stocks. HOV, at less than $3 a share, always get weakest fastest, but consider the doji in the sector ETF, XHB, and in the builder,DHI…

Now is this a just shot across the bow or a direct hit on the housing sector ship?

Either way, heads up! Especially investors.

And P.S. if this sector starts to sink, put a spyglass on the banks.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

$SBGL (TRADE UPDATE) – up 9.4% in 4 days…

SBGL, long from 11/21 at 5.09, has had a nice four day run to the upside to close-by resistance.


At the same time the leveraged gold-stock ETF, NUGT, has move up to the top of its recent range (see the chart below). Would like to see a breakout in order to take SBGL above 5.65. It closed today at 5.57.

In the meantime, moving the stop on half the position to 5.42, and to breakeven on the other half.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SBGL – the little gold stock known to get bigger..

Back in a little into the little gold stock that can get bigger in a hurry.

As has been said before, divergences don’t mean anything until they do (see the chart below). SBGL made a lower low in the last two days but the channel commodity index did not, setting up, once again, a divergence that might be telling on the long side.

Last this setup took hold, SBGL rallied up 26% in a month at its high and stopped out at up 22% (see the first chart below for the history). Not bad, especially since its stock sector (measured by the ETFs GDX, NUGT, and JNUG) were mostly going lower during that entire advance (see the second chart below).

Closed today at 5.16. May add on tomorrow’s open. Stop at 4.98.

(click on the charts below for larger views)

$SBGL UPDATE – up 25% on this swing and still going…

SBGL continues to defy the general gold-stock sector trend – up nine consecutive days and counting.

This an update of the posts here:

SBGL – Updating the swing hold on the gold stock

The stock, which can be wild and crazy (has been known to double on a swing), has been rallying steadily as the stocks in the sector, measured here by the leveraged ETFs NUGT and JNUG (see chart below), have been moving down and sideways for the past three weeks.

The trade is up 25% in a little more than a month. If the gold stocks have a bounce, SBGL will probably continue its climb, but I suspect the sector is more likely take another leg down, and this time take SBGL with it. The gold-stock sector had a bounce today (11/6) with GDX, NUGT, JNUG up, extending SBGL’s run to the upside to nine days in a row.

I am tightening my stop on the stock to 5.37 on a long that from 4.42 to lock in profits.

(Click on the chart for larger view)

#The10kDayTrade on $EPZM nets $420 for the day

DAY: Positive.
SWING: Positive.
RALLY: Positive.

EPZM, in the biotech sector, was a buy on the third 5-minute bar today (see chart below), based on being above its open and above the rising fast moving average with the market trends all positive.

Show me the money:

The net gain for the $10k trade in EPZM was $420 for the day, exclusive of slippage and commissions.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

Trading System:

This is “show me the money” system when only trading a $10K account.

Stocks are selected the night before and bought at the market on the next day’s open. They are monitored on a 5-minute chart (see below) with a stop-loss on any close below the day’s open after the first five minutes. If a stock does not stop out right away, it will immediately be in profits. If the ETF or stock or option does not violate its open any time during the day the profits can be taken on the close to end of market day. That is the basic trade.

An alternative trade is to buy after the market open in the direction of the market trends whenever any ETF, stock, option is above its open, and manage it the same as above. The market trends are for the three time frames based on market timing – a Day, a Swing and a Rally trend for the longer term.

Profits can be taken at any time when the ETF, stock, option is overbought, or when it breaks down through a fast falling moving average. And as a day trade the trade ends on the close no matter what.

This blog is for entertainment purposes and nothing else. It is not to be in any way considered trading or investment advice.

$KBE – Are these banks or the walking dead?

Long-term market breadth has been rising for nine days.  That usually takes most stocks in the same direction.  After all, if a stock isn’t rallying when it has the entire market on its side, when is it going to rally?

So, consider the banking sector…

JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, DB, KBE (the ETF for the sector) are all falling while breadth is positive (see the rising green in the middle of each chart below), and now all of these stocks have broken support falling out of their respective consolidations (see the blue boxes on the charts below).

Don’t those boxes look a lot like coffins?  So is this out of the coffin and into the grave like “out of the frying pan and into the fire”?

Enough fiddling around.

If you’re a bull this is not a sector you want to see lagging, let along falling apart.  So here’s the heads-up, they’re likely going down.

(click on the chart for a larger view)



$GS $JPM $BAC $DB – banks of a feather bounce together…

Update April 3, 2107:

After eight days down in a row on the Dow, today’s bounce was nearly inevitable.  Eight days in a row is a lot when four is most often the magic number to buy for a bounce.

And as inevitable, an oversold sector is likely to bounce with it.  In this case, the financials – that is, the banks — GS, leader to the downside, as well as JPM, BAC, and even the deadest dog of the bunch, DB, which has some serious fundamental problems all its own (besides being the last lender to loan to Donald Trump).

Most likely this bounce will continue in a rise to resistance, most likely to bottom of the boxes indicated on the chart below at the point the stocks fell through support going into this recent decline.

If they turn over again with lower highs sometime soon…say, next week…that will not be good for any bull market going forward.  In other words, head up the bull might actually be stumbling.

(right click on the chart for a clearer view)