#MarketTiming – back to across-the-board buys…


Long-Term Breadth (NYSI): BUY DAY 6
Short-Term Breadth (NYMO): BUY DAY 1
Price: BUY DAY 1
Nifty-50-Stock-List: 18 BUYS, 5 NEW BUYS, 9 OVERBOUGHT; 32 SELLS, 1 NEW SELLS, 3 OVERSOLD.
CNN MONEY’S “Fear and Greed” Index: 39, RISING, FEAR LEVEL.
Bellwether Stocks: 10 UP, 10 DOWN.


The question in the last market-timing post here was the market due for a Stall or a Drop?.

With barely two days down in the indexes it appears it was merely a stall.

The nifty-50 stock list worked off its overbought condition during the week from 41 stocks on buys Monday (28 overbought) to 15 on buys yesterday. Buy signals in the list clicked up today to 18 on buys with only 9 stocks overbought.


Since long term breadth continues to climb, assume there will be more upside with an up day likely again Friday.

Of particular note: CNN’s “Fear and Greed” Index put in a low above a low today (see its chart below with the Nasdaq Composite) as it works its way higher. It is still at a “fear” level so there is more room to move up.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY – six days up into a black candle

Does the market pause here, pull back, or continue to rally?

My bias going into Friday is a pause, possibly going into a pull back.

But, thanks to SPY rising six days in a row, putting a black candle on the price chart and an inside day today (see the chart below), it’s going to be easy to see the next move, either up or down. Every black candle, which I simply define as a day in which the close is higher than the day before and lower than its open, is a clear sign of indecision in the market and an inside day is a further indication of indecision. The indecision obviously is resolved above the high or below the low of the black candle day. It’s that simple.

At the moment, the key numbers on SPY are 287.76 at the high and 285.75 at the low.

Of course it takes a down day to start a decline and SPY, at six days up, has not had one but the Nasdaq Comp, after five days up in a row, was down slightly today and there were eighteen sell signals today on my nifty-50 stock list, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is overbought in the greed zone… All of which contribute to my bias.

On the other hand, long-term breadth (NYSI) continues to rise, short-term breadth (NYMO) also is positive so it’s likely, when and if it comes, the dip will be more of a pause than a deep pullback.

In the meantime, it might be time for swing traders to tighten stops to lock in profits. It’s been a good upside run this week with TQQQ up 3.8%, TNA, up 3.1% and UPRO up 2.5% at today’s close.

Among the bellwether stocks FB is up 4.9 %, FSLR up 3.9%; AAPL lagging but up 2.1% (watching for a short soon); remarkably WYNN is up 13.1% and AMD up 10.4% and GS up 4.2% and BAC up 4.5% at today’s close. All of these are four day trades from the market-timing buy signal on the open Monday.

(click on the chart for larger view)

#MarketTiming – today’s “gasp” in the slow rollover…

Yesterday in this link below it was suggested that there might soon be a collective market gasp as the fierce bear-market rally might becoming to an end, possibly as soon as today:

$SPY – the slow roll over?

The rollover didn’t show up all that much today in the indexes but if the leverage ETFs across the most prominent sectors are any indication (see the illustration below), this could be the start of something big for the bears.

Besides the solid gains in these leveraged ETFs (see percentage change column on the chart below), 42 of the stocks in my nifty-50 stock list were in the red. That was mass selling, a veritable blood bath on the day. SPY puts in or at or near the money on the open, expiring today, were up a minimum of 93% from today’s open (the 279 put was up 243%, showing there is nothing “slow” about a rollover on an expiration day).

In addition, CNN’s Fear And Greed Index appears to have topped again at an extreme greed level and turned down (see the SPY chart below). And the VIX has edged up above 15 again, a key level in the ebb and flow between bull and in this case more importantly bear markets.

Again, as it was coming into today, the market looks primed for more down side. As long as the breadth indicators (NYMO/NYSI) are negative, shorts are in play.

(click on charts below for a larger view)

(click on the chart for a larger view of SPY in relation to CNN’s Fear And Greed)

$SPY – chances are the market plops tomorrow

I was going to write a detailed analysis of why I think the general market (SPY, QQQ) takes at least a dip Thursday but I’m kind of tired.

So suffice it to say, the Nasdaq Composite is up seven days in a row, and SPY, except for a brief pause a few days ago, the same. My Nifty-50 stocks have gone from 40 on sells at the beginning of the rally up to 41 on buys Monday and are now rolling over. A lot of the stocks have been sluggish since that peak three days ago.

CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index is one click away from an extreme greed level.

Most importantly, long-term breadth has gone negative today (see the red line on the chart below).

Yup, there’s good chance a pull back begins tomorrow. Hopefully it is a down swing that lasts for a couple of trading days since this advance is now in thin air and can surprise to the downside any second.

Time to tighten stops or look to to exit the up swing.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY options – another freaky Friday?

Last Friday, the calls in what I’ve ironically labeled for myself the “Fool’s Game” exploded 250%.

In my post in this link below I noted that going into that Friday, my game was looking at its first losing week this year and there had been no trending day during the week also for the first time this year. I define a trending day as any day either the weekly SPY calls or the puts close with a 100% or more gain.


So what’s this week look like? Pretty much the same as last week.

As of today’s close, this day-trading system, buying SPY calls and/or puts, expiring either Wednesday or Friday, is losing money, a jarring 81% for each $10K traded (it was losing 152% at last Thursday’s close). Obviously, one does not trade this with any more than a small portion of any account. In addition, this week again there has been no trending day.

Can last Friday be happening again this week? I’m going to suggest — yes!

SPY is down this week four days in a row (not much) which tends to be a magical number for a turn-around in my experience with swing trading, especially in this bull market. The Nasdaq Comp is down three consecutive days. CNN Finance’s “Fear and Greed” Index is down four days to 21, an “extreme fear” level, a neighborhood in which one should consider going long. Yesterday, 40 of the stocks in my nifty-50 stock list were on sells (that is usually the bottom or the beginning of the bottom in any downswing, however small). Today those stocks clicked up to just 38 on sells. The VIX gave a swing buy signal to go long on tomorrow’s open.

And tomorrow is Friday. There have been twelve trending days by my definition so far this year and seven of them have come on Friday. Freaky.

Added all up, tomorrow looks like a run to the upside again and the calls could go crazy, again, if its another trending day.

Or the market could have a monster fifth-day-down crash…but then that would also be a trending day, only in the puts instead.

$SPY – Can “Fear and Greed” bring on a tumble?

The market Tuesday opened up, ground down, firmed into the close. I hardly know what to say, another day of chop with an upward bias.

However, the grind down managed to turn all my swing signals negative which would indicate further downside but of late that has seldom happened in this bull market. It is almost as if the signals (reliable for years) work again, it will be a sea change, or at least a nasty little rogue wave sucking that the bull’s ankles.

Took a look at CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index (see chart below). Talk about divergences with the ever rising S&P…that is an ugly, ugly chart, and the last time it got this ugly the general market took a bit of a tumble back in August. That, in retrospect was a tumble that reinvigorated the market for another bull run.

So here’s to tumbles?



PRICE: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 2).


SPY CLOSE – 258.67
QQQ CLOSE – 153.88
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (58, falling, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 24 Buys; 13 Overbought, 3 Oversold, 3 new buys today, 9 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

Sell, sell, sell and SELL!

Wonder of wonders.

All three of the swing signals I pay attention to – based on price, breadth and volatility — gave sell signals today for tomorrow’s open, and even long-term breadth turned down too.

I can’t remember the last time all these were in sync but I think it was back in early August, not long before the last decent dip this bull market had.

What I’d like to see now is this market take a drop like an airliner that runs out of fuel in mid-air, a slam down that falls hard and fast enough to scare the complacency out of every long-term passenger in the first-class and economy seats alike. Can’t say the C word since that would insure we get no pullback at all…but down hard and fast enough would, as they say, clear the air.

And we are still in “extreme greed” on CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index (see chart below – SPY in blue, FGI in red) and it too has far to fall. Ideally, a three to five week pullback into “extreme fear” again would truly refuel and restart the engines.

Needless to say, as strong as this bull market has been (and probably still is) none of that is likely. So okay, I guess, a nice glide down for two or three days before a charge up to the highs again would be fine too.

Might not even get that in the wild blue yonder of this market.


PRICE: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 23).


SPY CLOSE – 253.95.
QQQ CLOSE – 147.48.
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (84 falling, extreme greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 24 Buys; 18 Overbought, 5 Oversold, 5 new buys today, 7 new sells.

(Click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY #MarketTiming – warnings, warnings, but…

After eight consecutive days up, SPY turned down Friday. I have to laugh. The decline was twenty-three cents – on a $254 ETF. Hard to get even the least big bearish about that.

And the Nasdaq Composite eeked out another gain for its ninth day up in a row.

Bears must be pulling their hair out by now. Won’t this market ever go down?!

But I have a feeling that bulls are starting to feel the possibility that whenever this rocket trajectory ends, the booster will fall. At that point, the question will be can the payload stay and hold in high orbit after the rocket is gone?

I have signs that all is not well under the surface. Once again. This bull market has defied every one of these downswing attempts for quite some time now. In my swing signals, short-term breadth and volatility whipsawed again to a sell, leaving only price rising (based on the Naz Comp up 9 consecutive days!). Long-term breadth remains positive but short-term breadth is slowly losing momentum (see chart below), which is always a big warning sign. Maybe this time that high below a high in the upper portion of the chart will be THE WARNING of the tumble to come. Fear and Greed clicked down from 95 to 92. Both those numbers are too high and unsustainable. My nifty-fifty stock list has been slowly rolling over from 39 on buys Tuesday, to 38 on Wednesday, to 37 on Thursday, to a bit bigger slip to 28 on Friday, and also registered 14 new sells on Friday.

Warnings, warnings, warnings, but until SPY follows through with more downside and the Nasdaq composite joins it in a notable drop, one can only say the bull market rages on, delighting buy-and-hold investors and driving swing traders crazy.


PRICE: Buy. (Day 8).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 1).


SPY CLOSE – 254.37.
QQQ CLOSE – 147.66.
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (92 falling, extreme greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 28 Buys; 18 Overbought, 3 Oversold, 3 new buys today, 14 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#The10kDayTrade UPDATED – $BID, $NFLX, $FSLR, $SPY calls in play

Long-term Breadth: Positive.
Short-term Breadth: Neutral.
Price: Positive.
Volatility: Neutral.

All possible trades are $10k longs on the open:

Bellwether stocks: BID, NFLX, FSLR.

UPDATE: BID loss $57; NFLX gain $437; FSLR gain $28; for a total gain of $408.

3x-leverage ETFs: XIV, TQQQ, LABU, SOXL.

UPDATE: XIV gain $252; TQQQ loss $640; LABU loss $41; SOXL loss $88; for a total loss of $117.

The options list: SPY calls, QQQ calls.

UPDATE: SPY weekly 252 call gain $7,900. SPY monthly 252 call gain $3,900.

NOTE: Market rally is overextended with SPY up now seven days in a row and most index ETFs overbought. Once again this is a difficult day-trading market that could pull-back any moment but hasn’t yet on the close. The stocks and being nimble with options are likely the better play.

$TQQQ $XIV – up, up, up…UH…

All three of my end-of-day swing signals are on buys.

Friday nearly everything was up, the leveraged index ETFs — UPRO, TNA, XIV, led by TQQQ up 2.05% for the day; the leveraged sector ETFs – FAS, SOXL, ERX, led by LABU (biotechs) up 2.53% for the day; eight of the 10 bellwethers stocks up; 35 of the nifty-fifty stock list up.

And since every goes up in the stock market until it goes down, one can only assume Monday will be more of the same.

But what about the “UH”?

Well, uh, CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index rose to 85 at an “extreme greed” level (see Nasdaq Composite chart below). Really an extreme greed level! It can hold or keep going up but it is signaling that the market is truly on borrowed time before a pull-back, maybe one or two days before a drop (see the chart for the last two times the index climbed above 80).

So, uh…we will see how it goes this week but Monday, for a swing trader, would not be a bad day to sell at least some into any more strength, and tighten stops on anything left.


PRICE: Buy. (Day 4).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 4).


SPY CLOSE – 251.23.
QQQ CLOSE – 145.45.
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (85 rising, extreme greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 36 Buys; 12 Overbought, 2 Oversold, 6 new buys today, 4 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)