$KC_F #Coffee futures – racks up 134% on the short side.

I closed this trade earlier (covered too soon) but coffee futures officially closed its current down swing with a profit of about 134%.

Needless to say again, Coffee has been a stellar performer on swing trades this year. Calculated on the continuous contract, it is up $16,500 on swing trades long and short (short being best in retrospect). Sneak a peak at the last line of text below for the current initial margin requirement to see what “stellar” means.

As for the current March contract, it is, according to TradeStation, up $12,600 per contract (see the white rectangle on lower right side of the chart below for closed trades). It is hard to calculate percentage gains since the margin has fluctuated.

Coffee has now reversed to a long. The initial margin requirement is now $2,310 per contract.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F #Coffee #futures short nets 100%

Took off half of the position earlier on this futures swing trade. Second half up more than 100%, about $3150 on a $2970 margin requirement.


This move to the downside has probably gone about as far as one can expect and is threatening a turn to upside (see indicator on the chart below) and is down three days in a row so covered the second half of the trade on the close today.

Not going long until I get a swing signal to buy.

(click on chart for a larger view)

$KC_F Coffee futures, five days short, up 70%

The char below says it all, short from 128.50 in the March18 contract and up now $2100 per contract on this down swing, a 70% gain on the margin requirement.

Oversold now. Down four days in a row, a marker oftentimes for a bounce.

Taking half off but letting the rest ride in case of a crash.

(click on chart for a larger view)

UPDATED: $KC_F #Coffee futures up 73% in five trading days

A QUICK UPDATE: Coffee futures sold off today (probably hexed it with this post) and finished its upswing with a 31% profit. In this swing system it is now a short.

Coffee futures, which gave a buy signal at 123.85, closed today at 129.65, up 73% on the margin requirement.


That is a net so far of $2,175 on a margin of $2,970. Five trading days from the close six days ago.

In addition it broke out of the box around its most recent consolidation so it is likely to have more room to run (see the chart below). A possible target would be the high at 132.70 back on October 10th (marked by a white dot on the chart).

A great trading vehicle, coffee futures are up 430% year to date on swing trades year to date, long a short, not counting the current gain.

(click on chart for a larger view)

$KC_F (TRADE UPDATE) – Coffee futures up 21% in 3 days.

Coffee futures, started on the close of 11/21, three trading days ago, at 123.85 at now up 21% on margin.


And they are up a magic four days in a row (see the white dots on the chart below), so moving the stop to 125.50 to lock in half the profits and putting a breakeven stop on the second half. In other words, this upswing needs to keep rallying right away or at least half of the position will be closed.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F – Coffee futures rack up 40% short, reverse long…

Coffee futures, after a dip in its past five trades, has regained its swing-trade mojo.

With the 40% gain on margin for the trade ending today (a five-day trade), Coffee is again up more than 430% over its margin requirement for the year to date on swing trades, long and short.


(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F – Coffee trade up 50% on three-day bounce…UPDATE

Up 50% on margin so took half off, and moved the stop on the rest to breakeven.


Coffee futures retraced 38% of the recent decline for those who like to pay attention to Fibonacci levels (see chart below). What I don’t like is a doji and there one is in today’s price action. In addition, the trade ran up into a certain moving average right at that Fibonacci line. Add all that up and taking some off seems prudent at this point.

Will let the rest of the trade run until the breakeven stop is hit or until the end of the long signal.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F – Coffee futures upside UPDATED…

Coffee futures, short for 13 lucky days, closed today with an end-of-trade gain of $2,976 on a margin requirement of $2,970 per contract. Doesn’t that seem kind of mystical?

They were a bit deeper into profits at yesterday’s or today’s low but what does that matter? A profit is a profit. And there have been a lot of profits in coffee since I wrote this September 13th:

KC – Coffee futures find their swing rhythm

Indeed, up 360% on swings long and short in less than a month.

The contract, after adding this swing’s 100% gain to that total, is now long on today’s close.

(click on the UPDATED CHART for a larger view)

$KC – Coffee’s splendid tumble…

Since a big reversal to the upside on June 23rd, Coffee prices had been chugging nicely up, a rally of some 20 points from 126 to 146.

Then wham!

My commodity system signaled a short (it goes both ways) and the futures just made more on a single trade than it has made 19 other long and short trades this year.  The short trade had a net of $5990 per contract on an initial margin of $2970, a profit of $3000 per contract, 101%.  On the chart below, the closed profits YTD are in the white rectangle on the lower left and the current trade in the white rectangle on the lower right.

I suppose after looking like a new bull market was being launched in the commodity some Elliott Waver might say it still is bullish setup with this just being an obvious two-wave decline, before a big bullish three wave.  but I don’t deal in wave theories.  Just simple upswings and downswings with a measure to gauge overbought and oversold.

(click on the chart for a larger view)