$TNA – up 26.3% on this swing…but…

Twenty-six-point-one percent in little over a month since long-term breadth gave a buy signal a bit over a month ago.

And now it’s up four days in a row on this swing leg of the rally, wildly overbought, with CNN MONEY’S Fear and Greed Index lodged solidly in the “extreme greed” level, and short-term breadth clicking down a bit today, all signs that the market and the stocks are both ripe for a dip if not a sell off but…but it has to turn down first and it has not done that. Amazing how many times traders can look at something going straight up (or straight down) and convince themselves this move is going to end – right now! Maybe, but until is does there is nothing to do but tighten stops but still give it enough room to keep going.

Among the other leveraged index ETFs, like TNA, XIV is up 23.2%, UPRO up 9.7% and TQQQ, the Nasdaq 3x-Leveraged ETF, is the laggard up only 6.7%. In a four letters TQQQ’s trouble is AAPL, with the highest weighting in the index – down 4% on the same market signal in the same time period.

Among the leveraged sector ETFs, ERX (energy) is up 35.3% on the signal, LABU (biotech) is up 24.1%, SOXL (semiconductors) is up 24% and FAS (financials) is up 11.9%. Same market signal, same time period.

We’re talking a little over a month here so it has to be said yet again – this what swing trading is all about.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. (Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 3).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 250.35.
QQQ CLOSE – 144.41.
LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 34).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (79 rising, extreme greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys; 9 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 8 new buys today, 6 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

A Tale Of Three Biotechs – $SRPT $INSY $RTRX

11/4/2015

A pure technical play for day and swing traders.

Serepta Therapeutic (SRPT), Insys Therapeutics (INSY) and Retrophin, Inc. (RTRX) are three of the many biotech stocks to have had substantial tumbles since the bloom went off this leading sector with the advent of fall.

Each stock is in a down trend with with SRPT up 23.6 percent on its latest longer-term short signal, INSY up 22.7 percent short, and RTRX up 38.6 percent short, all of this in the midst of a screaming market rally.

It the market wavers (and it looks as if it is beginning to), it is likely these three stocks are about to take another step down and give traders a chance to scalp profits or to have another opportunity to get on the overall down trend..

All three of these health-care equities managed to move no more than sideways during the latest market rally becoming short-term overbought.  Each have now have given individual sell signals.

These are shorts on tomorrow’s open with initial stops at yesterdays highs.

If the market, which is wildly overextended, comes down on top of them, I’m looking for all three to challenge if not break their recent lows.  For SRPT that’s around 24, for INSY approximately 22, and for RTRX 17.20.

(click on chart for a larger view)

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