Got the bounce Friday in a frenzied last half hour as suggested Thursday in this post: #MarketTiming $SPY – Buy now, resell later….
No doubt it was primarily short covering but the rapidness of the run-up was bolstered by the announcement that the confused disingenuous Trump Administration is trying to catch up to the actual facts of the Covid-19 virus.
Trump and his team of appointed incompetents had no choice since the scientists within the CDC are coming to the fore and not putting up with the bullshit anymore, and Governors Jay Inslee of Washington State, who Trump called a “snake” (I guess because Inslee was teaching him leadership by example), Andrew Cuomo of New York and Gavin Newsom of Califonia, as well as hundreds of mayors across the country, who could not wait any longer on the dithering Feds, were moving aggressively to confront the virus in order to protect the citizens in each of their states and municipalities.
Regardless, this bounce, even if it becomes a rally is not going to last. As also noted in the post Thursday, the economic damage that’s begun hasn’t even begun to move through the market. Companies may begin warning this week of earning shortfalls.
There are going to be a lot of earnings shortfalls.
The S&P is down 16% for the year, even after Friday’s nine percent bounce. If is FINRA Margin Debt is unraveling (it’s reported a month late), and it probably is, and if history means anything, the S&P has another 30 or so percent to the downside to go over time. Margin calls feed on themselves as the calls bring more selling and more selling brings more margin calls.
The point is it is not buy-the-dips anymore, it’s sell the bounces. Friday’s was a big bounce. Did anyone sell or just started praying for more?
In the meantime, I thought I’d take a look at a few stock sectors I follow to see how bad it’s been even with Friday’s bounce in the numbers. Interesting among the biotechs: both REGN and GILD are up for the year so far, the only glimmers of green. Those are among the drug companies working on a vaccine for the virus. I will get to the tech stocks later. They have held up somewhat but the bear will bite them too before this is over. And the marijuana stocks…ah, the weeds, they are worthy of a blog post all their own.
The tables below are a year-to-date (less than three months). Take note of the percentage decline columns next to of the raging red bars: