Had 44 sells on my nifty-fifty stock list Thursday. Forty plus sells usually marks, if not the bottom of a swing, the beginning of the bottom (see my simple chart below). Now couple that with the NYMO turning the NYSI up again, and the VIX plunging below the magic 15 level (again, after a fifth climactic day up in a row), and the indexes turning up from oversold, and today’s bounce was (short of nuclear war over weekend) almost inevitable.
Now the question is can the bounce continue? Probably, and if the next dip (tomorrow, or whenever) can’t take out what is staring us in the face, I SPY a rally to the top of the SPY range or higher by sell-in-May-and-stay-away time.
And if the next downturn does trip this setup (tomorrow, or whenever), well…that will be rather bearish.
(click on the chart for a larger view)