$SPY – chances are the market plops tomorrow

I was going to write a detailed analysis of why I think the general market (SPY, QQQ) takes at least a dip Thursday but I’m kind of tired.

So suffice it to say, the Nasdaq Composite is up seven days in a row, and SPY, except for a brief pause a few days ago, the same. My Nifty-50 stocks have gone from 40 on sells at the beginning of the rally up to 41 on buys Monday and are now rolling over. A lot of the stocks have been sluggish since that peak three days ago.

CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index is one click away from an extreme greed level.

Most importantly, long-term breadth has gone negative today (see the red line on the chart below).

Yup, there’s good chance a pull back begins tomorrow. Hopefully it is a down swing that lasts for a couple of trading days since this advance is now in thin air and can surprise to the downside any second.

Time to tighten stops or look to to exit the up swing.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

Leave a Reply