$SPY – Bounce back to last week again

MARKET TIMING SIGNALS FOR 9/4/2019.

Long-Term Breadth (the NYSI): Buy DAY 5
Short-Term Breadth (the NYMO): Buy DAY 1
Price (the Nasdaq COMP): Buy DAY 1
Volatility (the VIX): Buy Day 1
Nifty-50-Stock-List: 23 BUYS, 12 NEW BUYS, 11 OVERBOUGHT; 27 SELLS, 2 NEW SELLS, 6 OVERSOLD.
CNN MONEY’S “Fear and Greed” Index: 30, Rising, FEAR LEVEL.
Bellwether Stocks: 14 UP, 1 DOWN.

WHAT?

The market had a strong advance today taking it once again to the top of its free-swinging month-long consolidation.

It seems like I have written this post three time now. Seems like? I indeed have.

See $SPY up against a high wall and ready to rise and $SPY – From Friday to Friday to “deja vu all over again” below.

In other words, we’ve hads a whole lotta bouncing around going nowhere.

WHAT NEXT?

Short-term breadth (the NYMO) has been making choppy lows above lows since it bottomed August 2nd (see the black line in the middle section of the chart below) and the all-important NYSI has been rising now for five days.

Taken together those indicators make it appear SPY is about to break above its overhead resistance at 293/294 and move to the recent high around 300 on this up swing, but the ETF has appeared perched to do that twice before this month and still hasn’t done it.

I would think another turn down would be most discouraging for the short-term bulls and might bring a harder sell off.

But I don’t think that’s going to happen (I know…just as soon as it’s said it won’t, it will).

The Fear and Greed Index is gradually making it’s way higher. My nifty-50 stock list had 39 stocks on buy last time SPY took a look at this high wall of resitance, but now the list has only 23 stocks on buys, giving room to move to the upside. VIX turned down today to add another short-term indication there can be follow through to the upside.

Unless President Twitterdumb intervenes again, I think this time SPY goes higher probably for the rest of the week and taking the general market with it. But I will day trade Friday’s SPY puts if it doesn’t.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

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