#MarketTiming – slog to a stall…or a yawn?

MARKET TIMING SIGNALS FOR 7/17/2019.

Long-Term Breadth (NYSI): BUY DAY 13
Short-Term Breadth (NYMO): Sell DAY 2
Price: Sell DAY 1
Nifty-50-Stock-List: 23 BUYS, 10 NEW BUYS, 9 OVERBOUGHT; 27 SELLS, 7 NEW SELLS, 7 OVERSOLD.
CNN MONEY’S “Fear and Greed” Index: 55, falling, NEUTRAL LEVEL.
Bellwether Stocks: 6 UP, 9 DOWN.

WHAT?

The general market stalled today, with small down day in almost everything – SPY, QQQ, the DOW.

Now the question will be, as suggested in yesterday’s post, is this little-bitty down the reversal day Trader Vic Sperandeo says can end an intermediate uptrend. Probably not, but it will not surprise me if one of these days this rally this year falls apart catching everyone in a yawn.

There was a good play in the SPY 301 at-the-money put (SPY opened at 300.65), expiring tomorrow, up 73%, but it was a wild chop for anyone who got it (I didn’t, probably because I was yawning too much).

WHAT NEXT?

On the three end-of-day signals I follow on TQQQ (see charts below), short-term breadth sold on the open today, my price system set up for a sell on the open tomorrow (buy the yellow, sell the blue), leaving only the all-important long-term breadth still long (the chart on the right).

The NYMO will have to drop through the zero line (the black line in the middle of the chart). Today it closed by my measure at 15 and appears to be working its way into a sell but what appears often disappears before triggering a real sell signal.

So for a true change of trend, it is still wait and see and be long in the meantime.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

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