#MarketTiming – doin’ the monster bounce Monday…

Needless to say, the market was up huge today. After being down huge last week.

I’m just going reiterate what I said last Tuesday when I first began looking for a bounce in this post:

#MarketTiming – From the Kerplunk to a bounce

So what now?

This sell off is so extremely oversold there is going to be a bounce. Likely tomorrow.

Forty-eight of the stocks on my nifty-50 stock list are on sells with 36 individually oversold (that is a lot). The indexes are down more in this four-day thrust than they’ve been in more than a year. It is just too much too quickly.

However, the question is going to be what to do with this bounce? Hang on and hope it’s V-bottom? Or sit on the edge of your seat looking for a chance to SELL EVERYTHING?

The bull market of the past year would suggest the former, everything else suggests the later. But it should be noted that CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is at 22 today. While that’s an “extreme fear” level, it has more room to move down which suggests when the bounce happens, tomorrow or whenever, the low of left behind will be tested, and if by then this is a full-fledged bear market, this bounce is going to be remembered as a last chance to sell for a long time.

P.S While the stocks on my nifty-50 stock list had only two on buys and 36 oversold (a huge number in perspective) a week ago, there are now 40 on buys but only four overbought. AAPL and, my favorite, TSLA, had a particular spectacular day, up 25 and 90 points respectively. There is likely more market upside to come as more stocks continue to bounce back toward overbought.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

Leave a Reply