$SPY – Up, up, up…

After muddling around for nearly two weeks in a sideways-to-down consolidation, SPY and the rest of market appears now to want to go up, up, up.

Friday, the most important triggers all lined up as buy signals – short-term breadth, long-term breadth, and price. In addition, the VIX also is in line, and happens to be below 15 which is bull-market territory.

These are signals that repeat again and again in the market.

First, a low above a low pattern on the short-term breadth, measured by the McClellan Oscillator (the NYMO, see the green circles on the chart below), then an upturn in long-term breadth, measured by the McClellan Summation index (the NYSI, see the green vertical line on the chart for Friday), followed by a a follow-through in price (which appears to happening in the futures for Monday).

And oftentimes, when all of these bullish signals are in play, they result in a 10-to-14 week upswing in the market from the bottom on the NYMO (three weeks ago). If so, this rally could easily go to what they say — “sell in May and go away…”. And that could challenge the all-the highs.

I still think this is a major bear-market rally but in the meantime it’s buy and hold the swing and buy the dips when and if they come, until further notice.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

2 thoughts on “$SPY – Up, up, up…

  1. Really Like Your Work! On SPY chart dated 3/29/19 posted 4/1/19 you are using NYMO as your ST indicator and NYSI as LT Indicator any special reason you’ve choose these for the SPX Index and not the S&P500 ? Just curious.
    Assuming these are the Breadth and not the Volume McClellan data.

    Would have never thought of using them this way and sure looks impressive.

    Thank You for all the Great Trading Knowledge you share here

    rite01

    1. The NYMO/NYSi are breadth indicators. There are those who prefer the volume McClellan indicators, which are quite reliable also, either as supplements to the NYMO/NYSI or are their main go-to, but I discovered these back in 1987 while I was losing every dollar of saving I had up until then and have been using them ever since. I also use them over the those on the Nasdaq (NYAMO/NASI) since they are measuring where the big money is in the mass psychology of the market. I have them back on charts back to 1924. As far as I’m concerned the are the endlessly spinning wheel at the heart of the market. Thanks for the note.

Leave a Reply