$KC_F #Coffee futures – Can A Dragonfly Fly?

The current short in the March coffee futures is up 71% on its margin requirement on today’s close.

I have to say, letting these swings run their course has not hurt for years now, and this past year too. At today’s close the daily swings, long and short (mostly short), are up nearly $15,000 per contract (see the white flag on the lower left of the chart below) for the past year. The current margin requirement at TradeStation is $2310 per contract. For much of the year it was higher so it’s too big a pain to precisely figure out what percentage that $15K gain actually is but it is a bit better than 500% for the past 12 months.

But, for fun (and maybe prudent trading), let’s take a look at today’s chart.

That is a “dragonfly doji” on today’s action (or at least very close to it). Didn’t know what it was but I thought that looked ominous for a short position, like a possible reversal, so I went and looked it up. According to Thomas Bulkowski’s The Pattern Site, the odds of a reversal are basically 50/50.

ONE CAN READ ALL ABOUT IN THIS LINK

No big deal but I still think it looks ominous so, since no signal is foolproof, I’m tightening a stop to preserve some of this 70% profit overnight.

(click on chart for a larger view)

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