Since a big reversal to the upside on June 23rd, Coffee prices had been chugging nicely up, a rally of some 20 points from 126 to 146.
My commodity system signaled a short (it goes both ways) and the futures just made more on a single trade than it has made 19 other long and short trades this year. The short trade had a net of $5990 per contract on an initial margin of $2970, a profit of $3000 per contract, 101%. On the chart below, the closed profits YTD are in the white rectangle on the lower left and the current trade in the white rectangle on the lower right.
I suppose after looking like a new bull market was being launched in the commodity some Elliott Waver might say it still is bullish setup with this just being an obvious two-wave decline, before a big bullish three wave. but I don’t deal in wave theories. Just simple upswings and downswings with a measure to gauge overbought and oversold.
(click on the chart for a larger view)