#Nifty50StockList – as usual market bounces from 40-plus sells

On Friday, my Nifty-50-Stock List had 42 stocks on sells.  That usually marks either the bottom of a swing or the beginning of a swing bottom

Despite the bounce today, I still suspect there will be a retest sometime this week before a real bottom can be determined.  If the retest succeeds it will likely be the start of a Christmas rally that could once again challenge the index highs.  If the retest fails and the bears rip the market down from this bounce it could be the signal that a bear market is beginning in earnest (a Fed decision this month may be the final catalyst).

As always and like everything in the market, we will see one or the others in the fullness of time.

(click on chart for a larger image)

nifty50list

 

Adding nibbles on $NUGT, $JNUG, $SLW long for an oversold bounce

Holding NEM from today and adding the two 3xLeveraged funds, NUGT and JUNG, along with the silver stock SLW in hopes getting a bounce in this oversold and emotional sector of the market.

Stopped out SA today for a one percent loss.

I call this sector “emotional” above because those doing anything with gold particularly, as well as with precious metal trading in general, are generally…crazy.

This is a scalp attempt but if it gets really rolling to upside it may become a swing trade.  Tight stops and time stops are in order (in my case these better move tomorrow or I’m likely to dump them).

$AAPL could take a tumble right about now…

11/04/2015

Having underestimated Apple’s ability to buy its own stock ($100 billion worth so far since everyone else already owns it), AAPL has rallied higher than I expected after its plunge finally signaled the Aug/Sept down swings (they shoot leaders last) but it is now back up at resistance (sizable) and could sell off again, taking the market with it.

Sometimes it seems there is only one stock in the market.

Anyway, it’s been a nice 20 percent climb (that’s a lot of market cap), and could keep going (they have the cash), but might not, right about here.

(click on chart for a larger image)

aapl_short_term_2015-11-04_1629

A longer view:

(click on chart for a larger image)

aaple_longerterm2015-11-04_1630

$AAPL – Will the “Next Big Thing” be a huge stock stumble?

First the good news.  AAPL will make scads of money no matter what.

Now the bad news.  The company, built on innovation and disruptive technology under Steve Jobs, has become a me-too company while slowly slipping on the tech fronts it once totally dominated.

When once the company revolutionized the computer market with high-end desktop computing and tablet computing, and completely transformed the music industry with the iPod and ITunes, and the personal phone world with the IPhone (it’s been calculated that people now spend and average of 46 minutes a day just checking their smartphones), the company appears now to have no more worlds to conquer, or at least worlds IT can conquer.

The “Me-Toos” include the iPhone sometimes chasing Samsung Android instead of the other way around, an Apple watch that makes so sense at all against the wristwatches of older generations and smartphones of the younger generation (what, are millennials too lazy to check the phone time and email? hardly); a TV service that is sort of Netflix-Amazon and sort of Roku-Google-Chrome and as such Apple is entering one of the most competitive business arenas in which they are already far behind; and now there is talk Apple might build an electric car to complete with Tesla (huh?) to say nothing of Toyota, GM, Mercedes, BMW and the rest of the auto world.

More bad news.  Check out this link from The Street: 7 Incredible Apple Patents Than May Hint At The Next Big Thing. That headline may sound like good news but not so.  Despite the hyperbole the “7 Incredibles” include a personal remote control, a virtual reality headset (to compete with Oculus — more “me too”),  an “IPen” (it writes), a flexible phone (thought they already manufactured that…by accident), and a couple other noodles.

This is obviously not Steve Jobs’ Apple anymore.

So what about the stock?

First off, AAPL stock has generated an unprecedented market cap of more than $700 billion when the previous record was just over $600 billion (MSFT), and only four other companies in history have exceeded $500 billion market caps (CSCO, GE, INTC, XOM) and Apple spent more than $100 billion of the company’s massive cash trove to get there. They likely will have spend more to stay so high (which, granted, they certainly can do since they have more than $200 billion in reserve and the means to make more).

But more importantly, time and history is not on the stock’s side (all of those companies that flew over a $500 billion market cap with the exception of XOM have had their stock cut in half or more eventually, and XOM has lost more than 20 percent).  That time too will come eventually to AAPL’s stock also — when a company’s stock is priced to perfection and over-owned by everyone the “next big thing” is an inevitable tumble.

So let’s consider the chart of AAPL below.  The good news — it is at the bottom and a long-time range and it can move back up within that range (MSFT went sideways for 12 years after its fall), and AAPL with all of its cash might hold high ground going sideways.  The bad news, the stock drops below 119-120 and all hell breaks loose when everyone who bought it basically this year realizes they are losing money.

The time for the tumble could be right now.

That’s it, one way or the other.

(Click on the chart for a larger image)

AAPL_2015-08-03_0953

Taking profits on the bounce…

We had the market bounce suggested last Sunday in the blog entry below:

What goes down too far too fast bounces…

The market, after a Monday dip, firmed for the rest of the week and is now extended enough to expect a pause if not a quick pullback so, being a swing trader primarily, I’m going flat, taking profits on all trading positions for the weekend. Besides, the Nasdaq Comp, up 89 points on this run, did turn down today (by fifty cents…but could that be a whisper of the sell down to come?).

On the bounce, TQQQ closed up 3.7 percent from Monday’s open, UPRO up 4.7 percent, TNA 4.6 percent, SOXL 3.1 percent, BIB 3.9 percent.  Among the various stocks suggested as buys and in mentioned by name in this link, ORCL closed the week up 3 percent, AMGN up 10.3 percent (how about that!), GILD up 4.1 percent.

And AAPL… Hmm…

So long the leader or at least a significant participant on every swing, AAPL was down 1.4 percent for the week, down even with a rallying market on its side.  May have to take a closer look at it over the weekend.  The company will no doubt go on making billions but the heyday of AAPL’s stock may finally be over.

(Click on the chart for a larger view of the bouncing market on the Nasdaq Comp)

Bounce_Friday_2015-07-31_1639

What goes down too far too fast, BOUNCES…

My best indicator for a market bounce is in play (see the circles on the chart below for the historical perspective).  Not much more to say about it except the obvious — this downswing has one day, two at most left to go (unless it’s different this time or wants to crash).

This starts as a day trade and maybe morphs into a rally for more to the upside.  The trades are the usual set of long 3x leverage ETFs — TQQQ, UPRO, TNA, BIB, SOXL — and futures, and options — buying calls, selling puts — and going long various stocks. Follow at your own risk.

(The green line on the chart is the Nasdaq Composite measured on the right axis.)

(Click on the chart for a larger image)

BOUNCE_2015-07-26_1713

Selling Stocks Short On A Negative Market Signal

Market timing – negative (3 days old).

(Update: 07/24/15)

(Updated chart below. On a negative market day, all six stocks sold short on the open were in profits at the close, particularly BIIB up 8.2% for the day.)

As the market indexes continue to slide toward oversold territory, individual stocks giving sell-short signals for Friday’s open include ALR, BIIB, GWPH, as well as AXP and MRK in the Dow.

They have joined SUNE which was a short on today’s open. At six percent into profits on a single day, it now has a break-even stop in place.

Each stock is a short and hold until the red color coding on the chart below turns yellow again.

(Note: these trades are not recommended for anyone other than as a journal record for myself.)

(Click on the chart for a larger image)

Short_stocks_update_2015-07-24_1306

The Great8Stocks

Adding NPTN, BONA, SUPN and SINA to the top eight stock in my Nifty50List this week.  The holdovers from last week are NOAH (number one on the list), IMPV, ADXS and EGRX.

But not buying as yet since all market-timing signals are on sells. This will likely be a day trade since some many of these are wildly overextended (for instance, EGRX up 340% year to date).

(Click for larger image)

GREAT8STOCKS6-14