$KC_F #Coffee futures – racks up 134% on the short side.

I closed this trade earlier (covered too soon) but coffee futures officially closed its current down swing with a profit of about 134%.

Needless to say again, Coffee has been a stellar performer on swing trades this year. Calculated on the continuous contract, it is up $16,500 on swing trades long and short (short being best in retrospect). Sneak a peak at the last line of text below for the current initial margin requirement to see what “stellar” means.

As for the current March contract, it is, according to TradeStation, up $12,600 per contract (see the white rectangle on lower right side of the chart below for closed trades). It is hard to calculate percentage gains since the margin has fluctuated.

Coffee has now reversed to a long. The initial margin requirement is now $2,310 per contract.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – What a RIOT!

The late great Kennedy Gammage of the Richland Report used to always say “buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you.”

He was making allowance for stocks that defied the general market’s move or giving stock pickers something to do to impress their clients. What he did not tell was that most often when the market says sell, so does the stock.

As I’ve written here repeatedly, I keep a nifty-50 list of stocks, which I follow both as an indicator and for their individual abilities to move with the market. Every so often (roughly quarterly) I sort the list and add in new stocks to keep it current and vibrant.

On the last sort, the stock symbol RIOT vaulted to the very top of list virtually from out of nowhere. Here is its profile on Yahoo Finance:

Bioptix, Inc., through its subsidiary, BiOptix Diagnostics, Inc., develops enhanced surface plasmon resonance technology platform for the detection of molecular interactions. The company also focuses on animal healthcare and owns important intellectual property rights related to veterinary products. In addition, it has granted a license relating to single chain reproductive hormone technology for use in no-human mammals, which is under active development by the licensee bovine rFSH. The company was formerly known as Venaxis, Inc. and changed its name to Bioptix, Inc. in November 2016. Bioptix, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Castle Rock, Colorado.

What?

Recently, it seems, Bioptix, Inc. changed its name to Riot Blockchain, Inc. and its stock went insane, rising from $8 to $23 in four trading days. Then quickly dropped back down as far as $13 in three days. Then wandered sideways while the Nasdaq pulled back and my three swing signals – market timing signals based on Price, Breadth and Volatility – remained on sells. When finally, the swing signals began to click in with buy signals (see the chart panel below), RIOT took off riotously again, rising 101% on the price signal, 92% on the breadth signal and 96% on the volatility signal in less than five days (again, see the chart panel below) – as Kennedy Gammage would say “buy when the market tells you.”

None of this makes any sense to me. I like to think this is three guys smoking weed in Castle Rock, Colorado, where it’s legal who get the brain stroke to go for a “blockchain” in their name because they sort of are one…and laughing at the idea. Wouldn’t that be a riot? What a stroke!

Well, Wednesday we may get a chance to see if “sell when the market tells you” is more telling than “sell when the stock tells you” since all of my short-term swing signal gave sells today for tomorrow’s open (see table below). Geez…going to have to take swing profits on these signal, somewhere around 90% to 100%. On a stock in three to five days.

What a riot!

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 4).

PRICE: Sell. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 266.78
QQQ CLOSE – 155.69
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (65, rising, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 27 Buys; 6 Overbought, 4 Oversold, 4 new buys today, 4 new sells.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

UPDATED: $KC_F #Coffee futures up 73% in five trading days

A QUICK UPDATE: Coffee futures sold off today (probably hexed it with this post) and finished its upswing with a 31% profit. In this swing system it is now a short.

Coffee futures, which gave a buy signal at 123.85, closed today at 129.65, up 73% on the margin requirement.

START OF THE TRADE

That is a net so far of $2,175 on a margin of $2,970. Five trading days from the close six days ago.

In addition it broke out of the box around its most recent consolidation so it is likely to have more room to run (see the chart below). A possible target would be the high at 132.70 back on October 10th (marked by a white dot on the chart).

A great trading vehicle, coffee futures are up 430% year to date on swing trades year to date, long a short, not counting the current gain.

(click on chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – Swing signals swing again…

Yesterday my swing signals for Price, Breadth and Volatility were all on sells. The market went up. Today the signals (see below) have swung again to buys. Across the board.

I’m assuming the market is going up tomorrow.

But the indexes are overbought and the internals are falling apart. Something has to give, sometime…

Sometime, needless to say, is an awfully vague term.

If this sounds like I have no confidence in these signals I don’t intend it to. They are reliable for swing trading. XIV, for instance, is up 67% year-to-date on the Price signal, up 55% on the breadth signal and 80% on the volatility signal (appropriately). See the chart panel below – from left to right Price, Breadth, Volatility.

It’s the market, at this point, going up and up and up relentlessly that bothers me. We’ve seen this before and it’s great while it lasts but it is not, in the end, going to be different this time.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 17).

PRICE: Buy. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 259.11
QQQ CLOSE – 176.24
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (54, falling, neutral level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 23 Buys; 11 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 5 new buys today, 7 new sells.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

#SwingSignals – Price, Breadth, Volatility…

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 12).

PRICE: SEll. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 257.49
QQQ CLOSE – 152.10
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (72 rising, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys; 14 Overbought, 18 Oversold, 6 new buys today, 9 new sells.

$TQQQ $XIV – up, up, up…UH…

All three of my end-of-day swing signals are on buys.

Friday nearly everything was up, the leveraged index ETFs — UPRO, TNA, XIV, led by TQQQ up 2.05% for the day; the leveraged sector ETFs – FAS, SOXL, ERX, led by LABU (biotechs) up 2.53% for the day; eight of the 10 bellwethers stocks up; 35 of the nifty-fifty stock list up.

And since every goes up in the stock market until it goes down, one can only assume Monday will be more of the same.

But what about the “UH”?

Well, uh, CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index rose to 85 at an “extreme greed” level (see Nasdaq Composite chart below). Really an extreme greed level! It can hold or keep going up but it is signaling that the market is truly on borrowed time before a pull-back, maybe one or two days before a drop (see the chart for the last two times the index climbed above 80).

So, uh…we will see how it goes this week but Monday, for a swing trader, would not be a bad day to sell at least some into any more strength, and tighten stops on anything left.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. (Day 4).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 4).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 251.23.
QQQ CLOSE – 145.45.
LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 35).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (85 rising, extreme greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 36 Buys; 12 Overbought, 2 Oversold, 6 new buys today, 4 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$TNA – up 26.3% on this swing…but…

Twenty-six-point-one percent in little over a month since long-term breadth gave a buy signal a bit over a month ago.

And now it’s up four days in a row on this swing leg of the rally, wildly overbought, with CNN MONEY’S Fear and Greed Index lodged solidly in the “extreme greed” level, and short-term breadth clicking down a bit today, all signs that the market and the stocks are both ripe for a dip if not a sell off but…but it has to turn down first and it has not done that. Amazing how many times traders can look at something going straight up (or straight down) and convince themselves this move is going to end – right now! Maybe, but until is does there is nothing to do but tighten stops but still give it enough room to keep going.

Among the other leveraged index ETFs, like TNA, XIV is up 23.2%, UPRO up 9.7% and TQQQ, the Nasdaq 3x-Leveraged ETF, is the laggard up only 6.7%. In a four letters TQQQ’s trouble is AAPL, with the highest weighting in the index – down 4% on the same market signal in the same time period.

Among the leveraged sector ETFs, ERX (energy) is up 35.3% on the signal, LABU (biotech) is up 24.1%, SOXL (semiconductors) is up 24% and FAS (financials) is up 11.9%. Same market signal, same time period.

We’re talking a little over a month here so it has to be said yet again – this what swing trading is all about.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. (Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 3).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 250.35.
QQQ CLOSE – 144.41.
LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 34).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (79 rising, extreme greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys; 9 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 8 new buys today, 6 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SPY – giving glimmers of a pause…

This is just a guess but it will not surprise me if the stock market rally takes a pause Thursday.

Overall, the  bias remains bullish with long-term breadth continuing to rise, and my buy signals based on price and volatility sill in place.

So why a  pause?  Why now?  Maybe?

The ETF for the S&P 500 — SPY — is not only up three days in a row, it has now been overbought for all three of those days.  The last time it was overbought for three days was September 1st going into the holiday weekend.  On the Tuesday following the holiday, the market took its deepest setback in this latest advance from late August.  And while this bull market has been relentless even in the face of any indication it might turn down, short term breadth turned down today at an overbought level itself (see the red box in the upper right of the chart below).  Many times when that happens as prices are shooting upward, it is the glimmer that there is weakness under the mask of the price advance, and many times it the prelude to a quick dip (look back over the chart for similar instances). Also, the stocks on my nifty-50 stock list have been slowly rolling over for the past two days, from 34 on buys to 27 today, another glimmer.

However, those glimmers may mean nothing at all and even if they do bring on a pause, or a sideways slide for a couple of days, it is no big deal.  It’s going to take more than this to slow down long-term breadth (the straight up line with the black dots in the middle of the chart below).  There are just too many positives so the market still has higher highs ahead.

Should be noted that AAPL filled an intraday gap from three days ago today down at about 158 and the stock finished near its high for the day.  If it bounces based on that, as big as it is, then there won’t even be a pause in the rally tomorrow.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. (Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 3).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 3).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy(Day 13).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (67 rising, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 27 Buys; 17 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 5 new buys today, 9 new sells.

Bellwether stocks meeting 5-minute day-trading criteria for a buy on the open Thursday:  BABA, AMZN, NVDA, GS, TSLA.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$TQQQ – up 7.3% as bullish bias for the week continues…

The Nasdaq, after its strong reversal from it’s open yesterday, followed through today with a strong advance.

The bias has been bullish all week based the fact that CNN Money’s “Fear and Greed Index” registered “extreme fear” last week and turned up from there to signal this week’s bounce.  I wrote on Sunday: “So Monday the bounce?  Then a rally?” That is exactly how the week has played out.

TQQQ, the 3x-leveraged Nasdaq ETF, is up three days in a row, 7.3% (see chart below).  XIV, the leveraged volatility ETF, is up 6.4%.

The “Fear and Greed Index” continues to climb and all three of my daily signals (see highlight below) are now on buys.

I expect more of the same for Thursday (although some slowing is likely).  Both UPRO and TNA, the leveraged ETFs based on the SPX and the Russell, are up 4 days in a row.

This has once again become a market that is going up until it goes down.

DAY TRADING BELLWETHER STOCKS:

The five-minute day trading stocks for today – FLSR, GS, TSLA, NVDA — were basically flat (up .11%) with three stopped out for small losses and GS up .8% to save the day.  Day trading bellwether stocks for Thursday’s open are TSLA, NVDA, NFLX, FB and AMZN.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. (Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy, (Day 4).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (29 rising, at fear level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 30 Buys; 17 Overbought, 3 Oversold, 8 new buys today, 1 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)