$FSLR – When in doubt buy…

Said it before but bears repeating: when in doubt buy renewable energy…

Simple as that.

Solar stocks will fluctuate with the market and with fossil fuel stocks but one day on some market swing (maybe this one) they will leave the fossil fuels companies withering in the sun, so to speak.

Recently oversold, here are a selection of solar stocks today:

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#STOCKS – Gonna huff and puff and blow your house down…

It’s never advisable to short a sector making a straight up move in a bull market. So let’s just call this a heads-up on a sector where sometime soon heads are going to roll.

Housing stocks and housing prices have gone crazy again. Just like in…uh, 2007. History repeats here and I suppose there are those out there in major cities bidding up asking prices on the belief that it’s different this time and even if is isn’t ten years or so from now they will break even on the house they overpay for today.

But it must be noted Toll Brothers (TOL), always the leading stock in the sector, took 6.4% hit today on its earning miss and gave a blow to the rest of the sector at the same time (see the chart panel below). From a charting point of view, today left a lot of uncertainty, if not downright fright, in the sector as measured by all those bearish candle patterns in the stocks. HOV, at less than $3 a share, always get weakest fastest, but consider the doji in the sector ETF, XHB, and in the builder,DHI…

Now is this a just shot across the bow or a direct hit on the housing sector ship?

Either way, heads up! Especially investors.

And P.S. if this sector starts to sink, put a spyglass on the banks.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

#STOCKS – the nifty-50 stock list revised and sorted…

Just scanned the market to add to and sort my nifty-50 stock list.

These, by my measure, are the stocks that have performed best with the market swing signals since the last sort three months ago. That does not mean they will be best going forward but it is my experience they will be strong vibrant participants on market swings to come.

In addition, the list itself serves also as a market-timing indicator.

For instance, historically, whenever 40 or more of the stocks on the list are on sells by my measure, the general market (no doubt in a pullback at that point) is within a day or three of a significant swing bottom. This, like so many indicators in the stock market’s forever bull trend, does not do as well marking swing tops. Too many on buys, 40 or more, does often trigger a pause in the advance. That’s just the way it is.

The stocks are: RIOT, KURA, XNET, ESIO, BPMC, QNST, AXGN, VRS, ACLS, DLB, KBR, ORBK, LGIH, SRPT, OLED, DLTR, MU, YY, TAL, DHI, ARNA, CGNX, JEC, COLL, MRVL, DK, HRTG, AWI, KRO, GTLS, PNK, CAVM, BECN, BURL, RNG, SGMS, CTRL, GLOG, ADMS, RH, EBS, ESPR, MLNX, CRAY, MTCH, YINN, PRTK, AXTI, GBT, HIMX.

The top 12 stocks are in the chart panel below.

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#MarketTiming – as breadth goes, so goes…Part II

This time short-term breadth.

The market indexes today were mixed – the Dow up again, moving through its bubble, SPY up a little, IWM up a whisper, Nasdaq down a touch. Like a lot of days lately (actually nine out of last 15), it made its move on the open then chopped all day until in the end it has essentially flat-lined for the rest of the day. No big deal and kind of boring.

All four of my end-of-the-day signals came into the day on sells. So swing traders would be either short or in a bull market in cash, watching for the next upswing. This is obviously a bull market. Those swing signals, including the important long-term breadth, remained on sells today except for one.

Short-term breadth gave a buy signal on the close today.

How many times has the market made a move to oversold on short-term breadth and turned up by itself to signal a bounce? As a matter of fact, every time this year a bounce became a swing became a rally.

And once again a bounce is guaranteed tomorrow on earnings news as AMZN, GOOGLE, MSFT, INTC and FSLR (from my bellwether stock list) are surging in the overnight trading (see chart panel below). As can be seen in the QQQ chart (the chart in the upper left), and assuming no disaster strikes later tonight, the Nasdaq is going to gap up madly tomorrow, and probably take the rest of the market with it.

If it doesn’t turn up long-term breadth in a timely fashion, this bounce will be suspect (unlikely but it could sell off right from the open tomorrow). But for now a bounce is a bounce is a bounce…

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: SEll. (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 4).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 255.62
QQQ CLOSE – 146.96
LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 8).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (71 falling, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 18 Buys; 8 Overbought, 18 Oversold, 10 new buys today, 5 new sells.

(click on the chart panel for a larger view)

$GS $JPM $BAC $DB – banks of a feather bounce together…

Update April 3, 2107:

After eight days down in a row on the Dow, today’s bounce was nearly inevitable.  Eight days in a row is a lot when four is most often the magic number to buy for a bounce.

And as inevitable, an oversold sector is likely to bounce with it.  In this case, the financials – that is, the banks — GS, leader to the downside, as well as JPM, BAC, and even the deadest dog of the bunch, DB, which has some serious fundamental problems all its own (besides being the last lender to loan to Donald Trump).

Most likely this bounce will continue in a rise to resistance, most likely to bottom of the boxes indicated on the chart below at the point the stocks fell through support going into this recent decline.

If they turn over again with lower highs sometime soon…say, next week…that will not be good for any bull market going forward.  In other words, head up the bull might actually be stumbling.

(right click on the chart for a clearer view)

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#DayTrading #Stocks — winners, winners again

UPDATE: 12/9/16

DGI, the one stock giving a buy signal for a day trade today finished down .62%, a small loss and a small price to pay for very fine week.  Although the stock indexes were up again – 6 days in a row – there were more signs of a pullback, or at least a pause, in the rally – only 14 of the 50 stocks on my nifty-fifty stock list were up on the day.

The day-trading stocks for today again scored with the market’s continued rally but a stall may be coming Friday.

Today’s basket of stocks from my nifty-fifty list — BBL, NAV, SKYW, BGFV, YRD, MU and FNSR (the leader highlighted on the chart below) — had five winners and one loser for a net gain of 1.8% for the day.  That won/loss on stock day trades for the week stays just above 82%.

However, there is a clue to tomorrow’s possible action since there is only one stock – DGI – on the list giving a buy for tomorrow’s open.  Forty-one of the fifty stocks on my list are on buys for the current market upswing (down from 42 yesterday).  Often when one runs out of new stocks to buy the swing is ready to stall, and maybe fall.  That comes with market indexes up 5 days in a row so a pause here will not be surprising.

Been a very good week for the bulls.

(Right click on the charts for a larger view)

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#Stocks – if one wants to bottom fish…

The sector to bottom fish for the long term isn’t coal, isn’t oil, isn’t fossil fuel in general, it is solar and other renewables.

No matter how much the Trump administration is going to want to pay off his blow-hard coal supporters this is still an industry with one foot in the grave and the other slipping in its own dust.

I can hear some coal boys braying but, but, but BTU (Peabody Energy, the “biggest coal company in the world”) was up 22% today to $13. Yeah.  And it may go higher short term but there is a 15-to-1 reverse split in there so it’s not out of penny stock territory and Mr. Peabody biggest-coal-company-in-the-world is also in bankruptcy.  And a lot of these last of the coal stocks are up a lot hoping for Trump but the future is the future and they don’t have much of one with coal plants still shutting down domestically and internationally the rest of the world going on with the Paris climate-change accord no matter what the U.S. does.

Coal, once a necessary evil, remains an evil investment in the death of the planet.

So here we are once again on the cusp of tomorrow and beyond.

There will be volatility but if one can stand it, there will be rewards in renewable energy in the fullness of time. And today’s pop in the sector might be the start of something big given that’s it come on bad news for the sector in general.

(right click on the charts for a larger view)

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#DayTradingStocks – all winners

This is an update for yesterday’s post below in which these stocks were suggested as buys on today’s open and sells on today’s close, day trades.

The net gain on the basket was 2.04 percent, led by GPS up 4.8% lagged by HIIQ flat.  Nice to have five out of six winners and actually no loser.

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#Great8Stocks- Top stocks in a Nifty50StockList

These eight stocks rose to the top of my nifty-50 stock list as the market began the current rally.

Into to the recent low the SPX declined 9 days in a row which is called stretching the rubber band too far.  No wonder there was such big blast to the upside yesterday.

With the market down 8 days in a row, breadth turned up on 11/3 giving a buy signal for the open of 11/4 (as has been said before “buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you”).  From the open of 11/4 to today’s close (11/8): CLCD is up 1%; CWEI, UP 15.4%, FNSR, UP 3.4%; NFLX, UP 1.8%, NTES UP 3.5%, TBPH UP 6.4%, TWI UP 14.1%, and XRS UP 5%. Deeply oversold leads to wildly overbought in a hurry sometimes.

I think the market will have one more downside swing (for whatever reason — Trump, initial profit taking, too much up too soon) but if that swing does not rip out the recent low, we will likely be in the Santa Claus rally.

The stocks below are in my personal trading journal (not a recommendation for anyone else), with appropriate stops of course.

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