#BellwetherStocks – markups in current upswing

Since the current market rally began on the open of February 12th by my market-timing measure, my list of bellwether stocks are all in the black.

Once again, an example of the value of market timing – when the market moves almost all stocks move with it. And if a stock doesn’t, beware the next down swing.

NFLX leads the rally up 30% so far, FB lags up only 4%.

For the rest of the list, see the chart panel below.

(click on the charts for a larger view)

#SwingTrading – the top stocks on the nifty-50 list

Just revised and sorted the stocks on my nifty-50-stock list – a powerful group they are!

I’m just going to feature the top 12 here because they are just too many moving too much. On the charts below the keys are the white flags on the lower right and lower left of each chart. On the lower right are the closed gains based on the 10 swing trades so far year-to-date and on the lower left are current open trade results using the short-term breadth signal as the trigger for the buys and sells.

Each trade is a $100K stock buy (so the cash in the flag is also the percentage return). For instance, QNST on the upper left of the chart panel is up 55.6% on trades marked up this year and the current open trade is up another 5.4%. VCEL, just below QNST on the chart panel, is up 66.5% on closed trades and down 2.1% on the open trade. And so on, and so on across the charts…

The stock trading here is entirely a market-timed swing system based on the basic idea that most stocks move with the movements of the general market. It is purely technical and what each company does is largely irrelevant. The measure of each stock is how well it tracks and how big it moves in accordance with each market swing.

Needless to say these and many more stocks are doing very well as the bull market so far continues.

(click on the charts for a larger view)

$Stocks – Bellwethers “sure to bounce”…bounced.

As this week draws to a close, thought I’d take a look back at the bellwether stocks I suggested were oversold and sure to bounce with the market.

Note this link from February 11:

Bellwethers stocks sure to bounce…

The bellwether stocks are AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, NFLX, GOOGL, BIDU, BABA, TWTR, FB, FSLR, BID, and GS.

Been two weeks since it was suggested the bellwether bounce would be sure to happen with the general market’s current up swing and the group has been led by BIDU up 13.5%, NFLX up 10.4%, TSLA up 9.6%, and both AMZN and FSLR north of 8%. The laggards have been TWTR, BID, and FB.

All twelve of the stocks in the basket are in the black on this swing trade.

For an easy comparison between the then and the now see the charts below. The white flags on the lower right of each chart show the cash (and percentage) gains per $100K committed to each trade for the past two weeks.

If the market continues up after this week’s sideways slide, mounting a further rally, these stocks are sure to go higher again with it, probably with the laggards playing some catch-up.

(click on the charts for a larger view)


$GE – on the watch for January bounce…rally?

Call is bottom picking as the tax-selling season ends – GE look like a prime candidate for a bounce.

Although depressed all year and in some kind of fundamental trouble (not my concern), GE remains a big name and, technically speaking, it has tested its recent lows and so far is surviving the test.


It’s probably worth a gamble, with the recent lows as a stop loss. This is a play I want to go my way right away or I’m going away.

For a quick, cheap scalp, at the moment, the Jan 17 call, which gave a buy signal today at 64 cents (see the 10-minute chart on the right of the chart panel below) is at 68-cent ask with the stock at $17.46. For what it’s worth that is in-the-money option. A bounce is going to make some money, and a rally is likely to make a decent profit.

Ignoring the chart, the better buy may be at the end of the day for the option play, and next year’s open for the stock itself.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SBGL (TRADE UPDATE) – up 9.4% in 4 days…

SBGL, long from 11/21 at 5.09, has had a nice four day run to the upside to close-by resistance.


At the same time the leveraged gold-stock ETF, NUGT, has move up to the top of its recent range (see the chart below). Would like to see a breakout in order to take SBGL above 5.65. It closed today at 5.57.

In the meantime, moving the stop on half the position to 5.42, and to breakeven on the other half.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

#MarketTiming – Swing signals positive for stock buys

All of the swing signals – based on Price, Breadth and Volatility – are on buys and even the all important long-term breadth is threatening to go positive.

It would appear we are entering a seasonally positive time.

On a stock trading note: four of the 10 stocks in my bellwether stock list have a good chance, if the market rallies as is likely Tuesday, of following the market:

See the positive candles today on each of those stocks on the chart panel below. Like the stock market itself, expect stocks that are up to follow-through and go up until they don’t. And, of course, if the market rallies it is also likely AAPL will again participate (always good for a bounce, a scalp, or an option-play).



PRICE: Buy. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 3).


SPY CLOSE – 258.30
QQQ CLOSE – 153.87
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (50, rising, neutral level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 35 Buys; 16 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 1 new buys today, 6 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SBGL – Sell no stock before its time…

Let’s just call it the Everready Bunny of the gold stocks.

SBGL just keeps going and going and going.

In the time SBGL has been staging its own rally, GDX, the main ETF in the sector, is down 1.2% — DOWN! The 3x-leveraged ETF NUGT is down 6.6% – DOWN A LOT! The biggie gold miner, ABX, Barrick Gold Corp, is down 13.3% – DOWN A LOT A LOT!

And SBGL is up 26% on the same time frame from:


But I’m here to confess to an obvious mistake and to sing a trader’s lament.

I sold half the position in this stock when it was up a “mere” 16 percent on a sell signal that…uh…didn’t exist. At the time, I must have thought it could go no higher although I’ve often said that this is the stock to buy among the golds because it has been “wild and crazy” enough to double. I must have thought the doji the day before I sold was a sign of the indecision that would lead to a sell down although the stock was up the day after the doji when I sold that half. I must have thought…

Clearly now, I think I was thinking too much. Which is one of biggest sins a technical trader can make. Better to not think at all.

Fortunately, I just sold half. So with this half up 26% and the half sold at 16%, the trade is still up 21% on the close today. Not bad but not 26. So next time…next time…

Ah, I don’t even want to think about it.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$SBGL – Updating the hold on the gold stock…

It’s been a long, slow slog since the buy signal on the open of 9/29, nearly a month ago, but SBGL, the little gold stock that sometimes goes nuts (meaning it can double on a swing), is still slogging to the upside.

This is an update of this post:

Divergences don’t matter until they do Part II

SBGL is up 14-plus percent despite sell offs this month in GDX, NUGT, and JNUG.

Still long (it can still double…), but moving stops to insure a profit.

(Click on the chart for a larger view)

$SBGL – Divergences don’t matter until they do Part II

It’s time to try wild and crazy SBGL again. Probably the entire sector of gold stocks for that matter…

Last time this stock traded it yielded a great gain. And now it has fallen all the way back to where the last rally began. Who says the trend is your friend? Not as much sometimes as the swing.

Divergences don’t matter until they do Part I

So what to do now?

It’s a buy now with a tight stop. Thurday’s low? Wednesday’s low? Depends on the individual trader. Last time was stopped out twice for small losses before grabbing the big gain.

In addition according to YAHOO FINANCE the stock is currently pay a whopping 8.9% dividend, which makes a candidate for a buy-and-hold if an initial swing can give enough of a profit cushion for a safe investment.

To see the divergence, check the lower graph on the chart below.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$AAPL – the stock that is the market…

The story of an otherwise lackluster consolidation day was AAPL’s event to announce its new iPhone, TV stuff and the latest edition of its watch.

Almost any day in the market is an AAPL day since the the stock is so big (an unprecedented $830 billion market cap) that is shakes and rattles every index it is in.

So today started out with the stock gaping up and immediately selling down, taking the Nasdaq with it.  It then chop-choped back up to its high of the day as its event opened.  There is a common saying the stock market that goes “buy the rumor, sell the news.”  Well, the traders indeed sold the news, taking the stock down two points into the close.

See the charts below.

For day traders that was just fine.  AAPL’s news was worth 40% in its in-the-money puts from the open of its “event” to the close of the market, 80% at the greatest measure of its tank from its high on the news. If one shorted its “news” in the stock itself, it would have been worth two points to the close. Five-hundred shares and one could actually afford their over-priced phone. A thousand shares one could buy two and give the second one to your kid.

To your kid! A thousand-dollar phone! You must be kidding!

And P.S.: that was supposedly good news.

So what now?

AAPL had an “outside day” which is a continuation pattern in technical analysis and since the stock came into the day on an upswing it is likely to recover today’s small drop and continue higher.  Especially since it has enough cash on hand and the prospect of a lot more to buy its own stock.

As for the general market all three of my swing signals remain on buys, and long-term breadth is accelerating somewhat to the upside so there is more rally to come.


PRICE: Buy. (Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 2).


CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (64 rising, entering greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 31 Buys; 19 Overbought, 3 Oversold, 6 new buys today, 9 new sells.

Bellwether stocks meeting 5-minute day-trading criteria for a buy on the open:  NFLX, FSLR, BABA, BID.

(click on the chart or a larger view)