$KC_F #Coffee #futures short nets 100%

Took off half of the position earlier on this futures swing trade. Second half up more than 100%, about $3150 on a $2970 margin requirement.


This move to the downside has probably gone about as far as one can expect and is threatening a turn to upside (see indicator on the chart below) and is down three days in a row so covered the second half of the trade on the close today.

Not going long until I get a swing signal to buy.

(click on chart for a larger view)

$KC_F (TRADE UPDATE) – Coffee futures up 21% in 3 days.

Coffee futures, started on the close of 11/21, three trading days ago, at 123.85 at now up 21% on margin.


And they are up a magic four days in a row (see the white dots on the chart below), so moving the stop to 125.50 to lock in half the profits and putting a breakeven stop on the second half. In other words, this upswing needs to keep rallying right away or at least half of the position will be closed.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F – Coffee futures rack up 40% short, reverse long…

Coffee futures, after a dip in its past five trades, has regained its swing-trade mojo.

With the 40% gain on margin for the trade ending today (a five-day trade), Coffee is again up more than 430% over its margin requirement for the year to date on swing trades, long and short.


(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F – Coffee futures looking to roast another 100%

The current coffee swing, which is short, is up $2,568 per contract at today’s close. The margin requirement is $2,970 per contract.

Would like to see at least some additional weakness on tomorrow’s open to lock in another 100% gain the margin. If it doesn’t happen there is a good chance coffee will reverse to a long swing at tomorrow’s close. This is likely, at this point, on both counts so tomorrow’s a key day for coffee trades.

I last wrote about this here on September 13th:

Coffee Futures Find Their Swing Rhythm

The swing rhythm observed in that post has obviously continued (see the chart below).

(click on chart for a larger view)

$KC – Coffee’s splendid tumble…

Since a big reversal to the upside on June 23rd, Coffee prices had been chugging nicely up, a rally of some 20 points from 126 to 146.

Then wham!

My commodity system signaled a short (it goes both ways) and the futures just made more on a single trade than it has made 19 other long and short trades this year.  The short trade had a net of $5990 per contract on an initial margin of $2970, a profit of $3000 per contract, 101%.  On the chart below, the closed profits YTD are in the white rectangle on the lower left and the current trade in the white rectangle on the lower right.

I suppose after looking like a new bull market was being launched in the commodity some Elliott Waver might say it still is bullish setup with this just being an obvious two-wave decline, before a big bullish three wave.  but I don’t deal in wave theories.  Just simple upswings and downswings with a measure to gauge overbought and oversold.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC #Coffee – swing traders’ dream

Coffee has been swinging from oversold to overbought and back again on a consistent basis for more than a year.

Last year, January through December, was spectacular with more than a $30,000 gain on margin (current margin requirement is $3,100 per contract).  This year not as much but still great –$10k plus so far.

Should be noted that the commodity may be in transition.  It appears on a longer term basis coffee has moved from bearish to generally bullish with what appears to be no less than a rounding bottom on the daily chart.

The commodity’s active contract is overbought and can go higher but that trade is on so not worth chasing.  The next trade will be a short.

(for a closer look at the swings right click on the chart)