#MarketTiming – stock shorts

Market Context: Bearish. 

All trades on sells or shorts from open of 4/5/16.

Swing ETFs: UVXY (from 20.65), SQQQ (18.51), TZA (44.30), UPRO (62.50), NUGT (59.00).

Day/Swing Trades (short) for open of 4/11/16 (options-liquid stocks):

  • WYNN
  • SBUX
  • LLY
  • MRK
  • RTN
  • LMT
  • JNJ
  • MCD
  • BMY

Notable that so many big pharma stocks have triggered sells.

Featured short (put play): PFE.

(click on chart for a larger view)

PFE_2016-04-10_1937

#NYSE Margin Debt

This may be too simplistic but every time I look at this Doug Short chart, I think at least 800 SPX points down before this finishes unraveling. It takes time, of course, but this time that would put the S&P 500 somewhere in the 1400s.

These numbers from the NYSE are a month old so the current record rally is not in them yet but I suspect when it is, it’ll look similar to that little blip up in 2008 just before the real tumble continued.

For Doug Short’s article GO HERE.

(click on chart for a larger view)

Nyse Margin Debt 2016-04-02_1114

 

#Nifty50StockList – picking bottoms with 40-plus sells

Again and again, my nifty-50 stock list moves from oversold to overbought and back again to oversold like an ever spinning wheel within the market’s spinning wheel…

And each time there are 40 or more of the 50 stocks on sells, it’s time to sit up and take notice since that is the number that most often signals either the bottom or the beginning of a bottom on each down swing.

This is just FYI, but it is what market timing and swing trading are all about, and the results can be quite remarkable.  For instance, the last 40-plus sell day was November 13th for a buy on open of the 14th.  On that buy signal, among the leveraged ETFs  TQQQ is up 10.6% (tracking the Nasdaq), TNA up 6.6% tracking the Russell), and UPRO up 10.7% (tracking the S&P 500).

Leveraged sector ETFs include ERX up 12.1% in energy, BIB up 10.7% in biotech, and FAS up 8.6 tracking financials.

Notable stocks on the same signal – AAPL up 4.7%, BIDU up 6.3%, and NFLX up an amazing 15.8%.

This is all in just three trading days so far. Nuff said, I guess.

(click on the chart for a larger image)

nifty50_list2015-11-18_1811

 

$GPRO and $FIT – a tale of two “Gadget Stocks”

GoPro Inc. (GPRO) and Fitbit Inc. (FIT) sell gadgets, a versatile moving camera and mount, and a wrist fitness monitor respectively.

Not much to say about these equities that is not obvious now and was obvious from the start — they have limited product lines that appeal to niche consumers who will buy fast and quit buying as quickly. Never fails that the stocks like these run up in a hurry on what is essentially a fad and fade as soon as the fad wears off and/or the market is saturated.

Which is why, once again, market timing and technical analysis prove their worth in profiting from both runs up and sells down.

With my latest short-term market-timing signal to sell the market and short stocks from the open of November 5th, GPRO has a short profit of 8.7 percent and FIT a short profit of 15.2 percent as of the close today.  With the market oversold it is time to either tighten stops to protect profits or just take the money and run.

Should be noted that GPRO has been in a hard selloff of more than 50 percent since August and longer term shows no sign of stopping that decline.  FIT is just coming back into its IPO day, a level it better hold or it’ll soon look like GPRO longer term.

(click on chart for larger image)

Gadgets2015-11-12_1257

$REM – A Possible Triple-Bottom At Support with a 14.83% Yield

The question for REM, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF, is it at a triple-bottom support or on a pause in an obvious down trend before a plummet into oblivion?

But the real question may be — is the technically over-sold condition in REM a sign that all the bad news from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming anticipated interest-rate hike already in the stock?  Hard to tell, it is already down eight percent for the year.  That may be enough.

The stock, which closed today at $9.91, has a yearly range from $12.69 to $9.76.

The triple-bottom at $9.76 is only a possibility since it always takes a confirming rally to complete the technical formation.  That clearly has not happened…yet.

Almost needless to say, the ETF’s current 14.83 yield (as of Oct 31, according to Yahoo Finance) is compelling.

And, at this point the good news for traders, and for long-term investors who refuse to look at red ink each day no matter what the yield, is the stop loss, if the down trend is bound to continue, is nearby.  Quite frankly I, for one, do not want to be here if this possible triple-bottom at 9.75 gets taken out (after all this could also be, technically speaking, a massive descending triangle with lots of downside left…gulp!).

(click on image for a larger chart)

REM_2015-11-10_1438