#MarketTiming – Swing signals swing profits on a down day.

Wacky.

Had buy signals yesterday across the board for today’s open. So the Dow closes down a 100 points, the Nasdaq down nearly 40, the SPX nearly 10, but all that I trade on these signals, XIV and TQQQ, and all that I watch, TNA and UPRO, were up from their respective opens. The signals are all profitable, at least on the close.

XIV up 2.3% from the open. TQQQ up .93%.

They will all be sells on the open tomorrow so I’d like to see a gap up to completely negate today’s gap down and put everything in cash for the weekend.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 18).

PRICE: Sell. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

SPY CLOSE – 258.17
QQQ CLOSE – 175.88
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (54, falling, neutral level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 16 Buys; 7 Overbought, 9 Oversold, 1 new buys today, 9 new sells.

#MarketTiming – $XIV leads the show…

Guessed yesterday there would be an up market today.

Linda Bradford Raschke once said: “Take all of the signals and once in a while you get lucky.”

Lucky today was XIV, following through on yesterday’s gain, for 10 percent on a two-day trade. With a gain that fast on the table it might be prudent to take some off or at least to tighten a stop loss to lock in profits at some level.

TQQQ, which I also favor on these market-timing signals, is 3.8 percent on the two day trade. UPRO, the leverage S&P ETF, is up 3 percent, TNA, the leveraged Russell ETF, up 3.3 percent. A notable leveraged sector ETF in biotech,  LABU, is up 8.7 percent.

We’re talking two days here.

But actually most of this wasn’t much of a guess — all of he signals lined up for a buy and lined up in deeply oversold territory. See the chart below for the kind of bounces that happen after the SPY histogram touches the lower green line marking a two standard deviation decline (no matter how fast). The red line with the red diamonds on the chart is the SPY itself.

And in bull market’s overall it is always “buy the dips”.  And today…obviously.

Must be noted that long-term breadth, although improving, is still in negative territory, which is to say, tighten the stops on the gains so far.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Buy. (Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 2).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 15).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (24 rising, extreme fear).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 32 Buys; 17 Overbought, 3 Oversold, 12 new buys today, 3 new sells.

(click on the charter for a larger view)

Disclaimer: Once again need to note all positing here are for entertainment purposes and should not be construed in any way as trading or investing advice.

$UVXY – big swing but watch out this week…

Got the UVXY swing for 50-plus percent off the 11 consecutive days down.

See the July 23rd post below: “UVXY – what a week this could be…”

Note the red dots on the UVXY chart below and the reversal on the VIX Friday.

Likely some upside to continue from Friday’s bounce into this week before any retest of this last week’s decline.

(click on chart for a larger view)

uvxy-vix2017-08-13_1647

$XIV – up 63% on swing trades YTD…

Haven’t posted here for a while. Out of sheer laziness.

In that time, the market gave a buy for today’s open on all three of my swing trading signals – Price, Breadth, Volatility. As a day trade the primary leveraged ETFs I follow were up modestly — TQQQ up 1.28 percent from the open, XIV up .83 percent, UPRO up .34 percent.

Breadth gave a sell for tomorrow’s open so will take some off the table but the other two signals remain in place.

Over at Traders-Talk.com the question was asked today: “Is anyone doing anything novel with the VIX?” I’m not going to tell exactly what is the novel I’m doing except to say I use the VIX to generate the Volatility swing signal, and I suppose this is as good a time as any, to note that XIV, the 3x-leveraged ETF based on the VIX, going long only is up 63 percent on thirty-eight swing signals year to date (with 65% of the trades profitable).

The Volatility signal is posted here everyday (or sometimes, like today, when I get around to it):

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. Price (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 2).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 4).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (63, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys; 13 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 9 new buys today, 1 new sells.

$UVXY – What a week this could be!

The most compelling thing I can say about the relentless rally going on for the past 11 days is it’s always hard to call a pause, let alone at top, in a bull market.

That said, the sometimes wild and crazy 3x-leveraged VIX ETF, UVXY, has declined 11 days in a row. What dose that matter? Doesn’t UVXY go down all the time? Pretty much, especially for the past five years. But this many days? Well…in the past five years UVXY has gone down 11 consecutive days only once before.

It has not gone down 12.

After 11 days down last time, it bounced 54% in the following 5 days. What a week this could be for the bears!

In the meantime, two of three of my end-of-the-day signals are on sells and flat. The third signal is volatility, still on a buy but after these 11 days stretched so thin it could snap any day, and minute…explosively.


SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long (Trade Day 10).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. Flat (Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Positive, Long (Day 3).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 8).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (73, falling still at greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 14 Buys, falling; 7 Overbought, 5 Oversold, 0 new buys today, 13 new sells.

The rally results so far (10 full days from the open of 7/10):

TQQQ up 13.7 percent.
XIV up 15.8 percent.
UPRO up 5.6 percent.
TNA up 5.1 percent.

Three of the ETFs backed off a bit Friday, but the advance in XIV managed to move the net gain up from 10.2 percent to 10.4 percent as marked by the Price buy signal on the open of 7/10).

#MarketTiming – 5 consecutive days up…

The market moved higher again today. This is the fifth day up in a row, and the fourth day of the swing trade from Monday’s open.

A splendid week for the bulls.

Of the three main trade signals — Price, Breadth and Volatility — two remain on buys while short-term breadth turned down today. That’s a signal for swing traders to take some profits – a third off, or more. Breadth, especially after a strong run of five days and especially with significant profits on the table, is often (not always) the sign that an advance has lost its momentum.

In addition, my nifty-50 stock list moved from 43 stocks on buys yesterday to 33 on buys today as 11 of the 34 oversold stocks yesterday clicked down to 23 today.

In other words it will be no surprise if the market dips tomorrow.

This is will not be a time, however, to short but instead an opportunity to buy a dip for more to come going forward (until further notice).

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 4).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. A sell for Friday’s open (Trade Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 4).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 2).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (54, rising in neutral).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys, rising; 23 Overbought, 0 Oversold, no buys today, 11 sells.

The rally results so far (four full days):

TQQQ up 6.7 percent.
XIV up 6.5 percent.
UPRO up 3.0 percent.
TNA up 2.7 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leveraged ETFs for the trade is 4.7 percent.

In the midst of a four day trade it is probably worth taking a look at 10 familiar stocks on this swing:

(click on chart for a larger view)

10_stocks_2017-07-13_1418

#MarketTiming – Day 4 0f Upswing

The general market moved up again today. Fourth consecutive day up on the Nasdaq. It is the third day of the trade from Monday’s open. A four or more day move is where the money is made in swing trading, particularly with 3x-leveraged ETFs (see table below), or options, or futures.

At the same time, this market is getting wildly overbought. Forty-three of my Nifty-50 stocks are on buys, with 34 overbought. This is a lot.

The Nasdaq composite is more than two standard deviations of an average advance. That puts it on borrowed time for more upside. Needless to say, it can borrow more time. Markets go up until they go down. Simple as that, and this bull market has had an inclination to put on more gains just when one thinks it should stall.

It is time still to let profits run since all principal buy signals remain positive and long-term breadth just turned positive also, making this a market now to buy the dips, any dips.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 3).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 1).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (47, rising back into neutral).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 43 Buys, rising; 34 Overbought, 0 Oversold.

The rally results so far (three full days):

TQQQ up 6.0 percent.
XIV up 5.4 percent.
UPRO up 2.3 percent.
TNA up 2.8 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leverage ETF for the three days in the trade is 4.1 percent.