$KC_F – #Coffee short netting 118%, looking for major reversal

The current short in the coffee futures is gaining about 118% on its initial margin requirement. That’s in six trading days.

Can be done, but it’s going to take some serious trending effort on the part of coffee bears to push this swing down more.

So a reversal to the long side?

Coffee is still in an overall downtrend (see chart below) but if it turns now, it will put in a second higher price low since its bottom in December at 118, which makes it not only a long trade to take, but also gives it a chance to have a major bullish reversal. Looking ahead if it can take out 128 with some conviction, there could be the birth of a new bull market in the commodity.

But all that is just speculating. For now the short is on and the profit on this swing is, once again, just fine…

(click on chart for a larger view)

$KC_F #Coffee futures – Can A Dragonfly Fly?

The current short in the March coffee futures is up 71% on its margin requirement on today’s close.

I have to say, letting these swings run their course has not hurt for years now, and this past year too. At today’s close the daily swings, long and short (mostly short), are up nearly $15,000 per contract (see the white flag on the lower left of the chart below) for the past year. The current margin requirement at TradeStation is $2310 per contract. For much of the year it was higher so it’s too big a pain to precisely figure out what percentage that $15K gain actually is but it is a bit better than 500% for the past 12 months.

But, for fun (and maybe prudent trading), let’s take a look at today’s chart.

That is a “dragonfly doji” on today’s action (or at least very close to it). Didn’t know what it was but I thought that looked ominous for a short position, like a possible reversal, so I went and looked it up. According to Thomas Bulkowski’s The Pattern Site, the odds of a reversal are basically 50/50.

ONE CAN READ ALL ABOUT IN THIS LINK

No big deal but I still think it looks ominous so, since no signal is foolproof, I’m tightening a stop to preserve some of this 70% profit overnight.

(click on chart for a larger view)

$KC_F #Coffee futures – racks up 134% on the short side.

I closed this trade earlier (covered too soon) but coffee futures officially closed its current down swing with a profit of about 134%.

Needless to say again, Coffee has been a stellar performer on swing trades this year. Calculated on the continuous contract, it is up $16,500 on swing trades long and short (short being best in retrospect). Sneak a peak at the last line of text below for the current initial margin requirement to see what “stellar” means.

As for the current March contract, it is, according to TradeStation, up $12,600 per contract (see the white rectangle on lower right side of the chart below for closed trades). It is hard to calculate percentage gains since the margin has fluctuated.

Coffee has now reversed to a long. The initial margin requirement is now $2,310 per contract.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F #Coffee #futures short nets 100%

Took off half of the position earlier on this futures swing trade. Second half up more than 100%, about $3150 on a $2970 margin requirement.

START OF THE TRADE

This move to the downside has probably gone about as far as one can expect and is threatening a turn to upside (see indicator on the chart below) and is down three days in a row so covered the second half of the trade on the close today.

Not going long until I get a swing signal to buy.

(click on chart for a larger view)

$KC_F Coffee futures, five days short, up 70%

The char below says it all, short from 128.50 in the March18 contract and up now $2100 per contract on this down swing, a 70% gain on the margin requirement.

Oversold now. Down four days in a row, a marker oftentimes for a bounce.

Taking half off but letting the rest ride in case of a crash.

(click on chart for a larger view)

UPDATED: $KC_F #Coffee futures up 73% in five trading days

A QUICK UPDATE: Coffee futures sold off today (probably hexed it with this post) and finished its upswing with a 31% profit. In this swing system it is now a short.

Coffee futures, which gave a buy signal at 123.85, closed today at 129.65, up 73% on the margin requirement.

START OF THE TRADE

That is a net so far of $2,175 on a margin of $2,970. Five trading days from the close six days ago.

In addition it broke out of the box around its most recent consolidation so it is likely to have more room to run (see the chart below). A possible target would be the high at 132.70 back on October 10th (marked by a white dot on the chart).

A great trading vehicle, coffee futures are up 430% year to date on swing trades year to date, long a short, not counting the current gain.

(click on chart for a larger view)

$KC_F (TRADE UPDATE) – Coffee futures up 21% in 3 days.

Coffee futures, started on the close of 11/21, three trading days ago, at 123.85 at now up 21% on margin.

COFFEE – START OF TRADE

And they are up a magic four days in a row (see the white dots on the chart below), so moving the stop to 125.50 to lock in half the profits and putting a breakeven stop on the second half. In other words, this upswing needs to keep rallying right away or at least half of the position will be closed.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F – Coffee futures rack up 40% short, reverse long…

Coffee futures, after a dip in its past five trades, has regained its swing-trade mojo.

With the 40% gain on margin for the trade ending today (a five-day trade), Coffee is again up more than 430% over its margin requirement for the year to date on swing trades, long and short.

Phenomenal.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

$KC_F – stopped out of coffee futures long, now short…

Lost a bit more than $400 per contract.

Three losers in a row after the big winners. Should be a winner coming up.

Back on the short side where most of the gains have been made this year in these swing trades. If the price can drop through the bottom on the box on the chart below, there could be a substantial new swing down as everyone in the recent price consolidation find themselves trapped at a higher level.

(click on the chart for a larger view)