The market had its one down day two trading days ago and has, as usual, vaulted higher off the opportunity of buying coming out of that one-day dip.
Quite frankly, except for the money to be made by either buying and holding or trading the long side, I’m getting pretty bored this bull market’s endless advance. I would like to see some pullback. Actually I’d like see a drop that scares the balls off the bragging bulls. That would be amusing.
Possibly we’ll get some pullback with both short term breadth and volatility, of my three swing signals, now on sells, but I’m not counting too much on it – sells are sells only, not shorts, as long as long-term breadth remains positive.
Overall the swing signals continue to be consistently profitable.
Volatility since the beginning of last year has been crushed with the VIX falling below 10 repeatedly. On the swing signals – based on Price, Breadth, and Volatility – the leveraged ETF, XIV, appropriately performed best on its own signal – up 105 percent for the year.
See the chart panel below for XIV on all three signals – the white flags are the returns per $100K place on each swing trade, which also corresponds to percentage gains.
A buy and hold on XIV wildly out performed all of these swing signals, up 159 percent since the beginning of last year (what a year!), but one would have had to have known that a buy-and-hold was going to do that from the beginning. On the other hand, swing trading controlled risk at every turn while also notching remarkably returns.
SWING TRADING SIGNALS:
LONG-TERM BREADTH: Buy (Day 2).
PRICE: Buy. (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 2).
SPY CLOSE – 277.92
QQQ CLOSE – 164.49
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: 79, rising, extreme greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 32 Buys; 25 Overbought, 4 Oversold, 10 new buys today, 4 new sells.
(click on the chart panel for a larger view)