$SPY #Options – been down too long

Following the green…

After dropping hard last Friday and drifting lower through the week, SPY is on a bounce so far today.  Got my Follow-The-Green buy signal at 7 a.m. today (pacific time), and the intraday trend has been up since that time. See chart below (will try to update, trading permitting, during the day).

By the way, those numbers on the lower right of the chart are net gains for 10 contracts (the green number) and 50 contracts (the yellow number).

Must remind this post is for an entertainment purpose only and not to be construed as investment advice, which is why it is intentionally not in real time.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)


 UPDATED CHART (what a difference an hour makes…)





$SPY #OPTIONS – three great days…

Following the red, the green, the red again…

This week’s SPY 214 put up 153 percent on Friday.  Then the SPY 212 call up 63 percent on Monday. And today, so far, the SPY 214 put up another 98 %.  Each of these are charted as day trades (see charts below for, first, the put move, then the call).

Size-wise, imagine if one could trade these swings full pedal to the metal.  But smaller size has been great too.

(right click on PUT chart for a larger view)


(right click on the CALL chart for a larger view)




$SPY – so what happens next?


SPY October ATM calls…

Following the red…

Friday’s drop in the stock market was the biggest since Friday June 24th.  On Monday June27, there was more downside but then the market bottomed.  Starting June 28th SPY rallied for four consecutive days, paused, and finally continued up into July and August and rallying all the way virtually to Friday.

On Twitter, I called this a possible “deja vu all over again.”  See the chart below.

So here we are again.  I’m short and watching for the turn, but trying to be aware of more to come since the market rhymes more often than it repeats.

(click on the chart for a larger view)



$UVXY – a look at a pure trending day

Following the red…

I guess the most surprising thing about today’s market sell-off is that it supposedly came out of the blue, a jet falling out of the sky.

But did it?  It’s September after all and September for bulls is historically the cruelest month.  Did everyone start thinking it would be different this time?  Again, yesterday?

Then there is the 40 day sideways move on the SPX…That could not go on forever. Typically when it breaks out of a tight range it breaks big one way or the other.

Now that’s a cloud hanging over the market that could be filled with thunder-and-lightning resistance on any snap back up to the breakdown line on the daily charts.

Technically speaking my follow-the-red indicator (the intraday trend) gave sell signals on the close yesterday on QQQ and SPY, but not on IWM.  It slid sideways into a buy signal on the VIX-based ETFs, in this cas the inverse 3x-leveraged UVXY (see chart below).  And UVXY, maybe the wildest and craziest ETF of all, put its volatility on display, up 32 percent on the day, 24 percent from the open.


Can’t be totally bearish since this market has defied sell-offs like this before.  Downside trending days like today tend to use up all of initial selling power so Monday could easily be sideways to up.

Still, the bears are on the prowl so it is time for bulls and investors to use stops to keep from getting mauled.

(click on the chart for a larger view)


#AirlineStocks are flying…

Following the green…

This makes no fundamental sense to me – the price of oil is up, the summer travel season is over and these are AIRLINES! — but the entire sector is lifting off .

At the moment UAL is up 5%, AAL up 5.6%, DAL up 5.1%, and ALGT a WTF 8.4%.

And the charts look spectacular.  Each coming out of high flat bases (see UAL below).

Maybe you can tell this is not my favorite sector.  I’ve always found it as uncomfortable as the middle seat in the last row in coach. But a rally is a rally and it appears this could a leading sector if we are now to have a weeks-long drive higher in the market.

(right click on image for a larger view)



#Stocks – buy when the market tells you

Following the green…

The late Kennedy Gammage, a wise and folksy market timer, used to say “buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you.”

Well, the market said “buy” today.

So, how does that look on a few notable stocks?

(right click on charts for a larger view)







$SPY – anticipating new highs

Following the green…

SPY, the ETF for S&P 500 index,  after being trapped in a box (see chart below) for 37 trading days, nearly four weeks of frustrating sideways chop, has a good chance it will resolve itself to the upside and into new high ground tomorrow.

And take the entire stock market with it.

The trouble is as it comes to the top of the box again, 45 of the stocks on my nifty-fifty stock list are on buys.  That’s a lot, so much that the last two times (8/15 and 8/23) there were 40 or more, the market took a sharp drop the next trading day.

The difference this time is market breadth has turned up after 27 days of decline.  It is as if the bears, having tried but failed to take the market down, have run out of time.

Note the follow through on SPY each time breadth turned up in the immediate past (the green lines on the chart).  If the market follows the green again this time there is no where else to go but to new highs.

But since anticipation is only anticipation, needless to say, one has to be nimble at this juncture either way, and protective stops are a must, long or short.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)


#StocksToBuy for Tuesday’s open

Following the green…

My newly sorted Nifty-Fifty stock list had buys signals triggered pre-holiday for Tuesday’s open: CARB, UBNT, BID, TRMB, TFX, and CYS (also a yield play).

Among the 3x-leveraged ETFs giving new buys signals: ERX, TNA, TQQQ, and UPRO.

Looking for follow through to the upside for a day trade tomorrow, and maybe a hold for a swing through the week.  But if they violate the open on a five-minute chart, they can be stopped out,  something that has been happening all too much lately in this choppy, nevertheless up-grinding market…

Of note, CYS (see sample chart below) is up 22 percent year today on these swing signals (long only) in addition to sporting a double-digit dividend yield.


“https://twitter.com/TheGodOfTrading/status/773165001540382720”>September 6, 2016</a></blockquote>

(right click on chart to view a larger image)