#Nifty50StockList – picking bottoms with 40-plus sells

Again and again, my nifty-50 stock list moves from oversold to overbought and back again to oversold like an ever spinning wheel within the market’s spinning wheel…

And each time there are 40 or more of the 50 stocks on sells, it’s time to sit up and take notice since that is the number that most often signals either the bottom or the beginning of a bottom on each down swing.

This is just FYI, but it is what market timing and swing trading are all about, and the results can be quite remarkable.  For instance, the last 40-plus sell day was November 13th for a buy on open of the 14th.  On that buy signal, among the leveraged ETFs  TQQQ is up 10.6% (tracking the Nasdaq), TNA up 6.6% tracking the Russell), and UPRO up 10.7% (tracking the S&P 500).

Leveraged sector ETFs include ERX up 12.1% in energy, BIB up 10.7% in biotech, and FAS up 8.6 tracking financials.

Notable stocks on the same signal – AAPL up 4.7%, BIDU up 6.3%, and NFLX up an amazing 15.8%.

This is all in just three trading days so far. Nuff said, I guess.

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#EnergyStocks – when an entire sector fails to follow through…

Well, to state the obvious, a lack of follow through ain’t bullish…

After virtually giving buy signals across the board yesterday (see ERX post below), the energy sector virtually got hit with more waves of selling today.  Given that energy was a leading sector on the market’s rebound from the September lows, there is a big chance the entire market has more downside ahead.

Of those stocks in the sector I follow, the weakest remain: BHI, BP, RIG, SLB, XOM, EOG, NBR, and NOV.  To my mind these are all shorting candidates but it must be noted that the general market is oversold and could push them up again like yesterday.

A bet on the short side here is a bet that both the market and the sector will continue to be bearish.

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#Stocks on #Nifty50StockList creep into buy signals

Despite a choppy flat day in the general market today, thirteen more stocks in my Nifty50 Stock list generated buy signals today.

There are now 29 on buys with only two overbought while 10 stocks remain oversold.  This is a slow creep to the buy side within the list from the 42 on sells and 26 oversold last Friday.  The advance is tenuous advance in a dicey market environment could turn down again at any moment.

That moment may come tomorrow since the general market, already in negative ground, gave a sell signal today. I am looking for a retest this week of Friday’s drop.

The bears still have the ball.

However…

If this pull back comes and provides divergences in breadth with Friday’s action and has a successful turn to the up side subsequently, we could be begin a rally into Christmas, maybe New Years.

If not, then the bears will still have the ball.

The chart below highlights four of the stocks giving buys today — MANH, RGS, VLO, ADBE.  Of note, several major stocks, either in my list or in the major indexes, including HD, MRK, UTX, MCD in the Dow; and FB, AMZN, GILD, CSCO and AAPL in the Nasdaq 100 also triggered buys.  I don’t have a lot of faith in any of these until the above mentioned general market retest comes and goes.

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$ERX – a leveraged ETF bounce in energy stocks

With today’s pop from oversold in the general market, energy stocks resumed their move as a leading sector.

Had short-term buy signals on nearly every stock I follow in the sector including CNQ, SLB, EOG, PXD, WFT, NOV, NBR, and the ETFs OIH, XLE as well as the 3xLeveraged ERX.

With nothing to confirm this market bounce is anything more than just that, a short-term bounce from oversold, my play is ERX with a very tight stop.

In other words, this is a trade that better go my way right away or I’m going away right away.

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#Nifty50StockList – eleven new buys today

Big market rally day from deeply oversold.

SPY up 1.54%, QQQ up1.35%.

My Nifty50 Stock list shifted with today’s rally from 42 stocks on sells signals, 26 oversold, to eleven new buys making the total buys 19 with none as yet overbought.

New buy signals came on $HFC, $DO, $WFT, $FSLR, $TAN (the solar energy ETF), $ITCI, $CNQ, $APC $MSFT, $JKS and $NFLX.  On the selected charts below the signals are marked for today’s close but for the purposes of this blog these are all buys on tomorrow’s open with appropriate protective stops (no one should follow any of these suggestions any time without doing one’s own due diligence.)

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#Nifty50StockList – as usual market bounces from 40-plus sells

On Friday, my Nifty-50-Stock List had 42 stocks on sells.  That usually marks either the bottom of a swing or the beginning of a swing bottom

Despite the bounce today, I still suspect there will be a retest sometime this week before a real bottom can be determined.  If the retest succeeds it will likely be the start of a Christmas rally that could once again challenge the index highs.  If the retest fails and the bears rip the market down from this bounce it could be the signal that a bear market is beginning in earnest (a Fed decision this month may be the final catalyst).

As always and like everything in the market, we will see one or the others in the fullness of time.

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$GPRO and $FIT – a tale of two “Gadget Stocks”

GoPro Inc. (GPRO) and Fitbit Inc. (FIT) sell gadgets, a versatile moving camera and mount, and a wrist fitness monitor respectively.

Not much to say about these equities that is not obvious now and was obvious from the start — they have limited product lines that appeal to niche consumers who will buy fast and quit buying as quickly. Never fails that the stocks like these run up in a hurry on what is essentially a fad and fade as soon as the fad wears off and/or the market is saturated.

Which is why, once again, market timing and technical analysis prove their worth in profiting from both runs up and sells down.

With my latest short-term market-timing signal to sell the market and short stocks from the open of November 5th, GPRO has a short profit of 8.7 percent and FIT a short profit of 15.2 percent as of the close today.  With the market oversold it is time to either tighten stops to protect profits or just take the money and run.

Should be noted that GPRO has been in a hard selloff of more than 50 percent since August and longer term shows no sign of stopping that decline.  FIT is just coming back into its IPO day, a level it better hold or it’ll soon look like GPRO longer term.

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$REM – A Possible Triple-Bottom At Support with a 14.83% Yield

The question for REM, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF, is it at a triple-bottom support or on a pause in an obvious down trend before a plummet into oblivion?

But the real question may be — is the technically over-sold condition in REM a sign that all the bad news from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming anticipated interest-rate hike already in the stock?  Hard to tell, it is already down eight percent for the year.  That may be enough.

The stock, which closed today at $9.91, has a yearly range from $12.69 to $9.76.

The triple-bottom at $9.76 is only a possibility since it always takes a confirming rally to complete the technical formation.  That clearly has not happened…yet.

Almost needless to say, the ETF’s current 14.83 yield (as of Oct 31, according to Yahoo Finance) is compelling.

And, at this point the good news for traders, and for long-term investors who refuse to look at red ink each day no matter what the yield, is the stop loss, if the down trend is bound to continue, is nearby.  Quite frankly I, for one, do not want to be here if this possible triple-bottom at 9.75 gets taken out (after all this could also be, technically speaking, a massive descending triangle with lots of downside left…gulp!).

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